World Cup Draw

I will be writing a lot more on the World Cup over time, but here are my initial thoughts on the draw.

Winners:

United States - It was close to a dream draw for the yanks. They missed out on South Africa, but England is one of the easier seeded teams to draw. The other two teams are the worst teams in their pots. There weren't many possible draws that have the US as second-best in the group, but they got one. Qualifying still won't be easy, but it's a lot more likely now than it was yesterday.

England - Similar story to the above. Depending on your point of view, the USA was the best or second best behind Mexico in pot 2 so that was unlucky, but again the other two teams were the best draws. England should go through top.

France - Whether it was due to the handball incident or something else, France weren't seeded because FIFA changed the way they did the seeding. With the draw they effectively became the seeded team in the group. Drawing South Africa not only meant the weakest seeded team, but it also meant not having to play one of the big African teams. To make things even better, should France advance they will play one of Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea and Greece. Those teams aren't bad, but as I'll point out later, it could have been a lot worse. The only thing not perfect is that they drew one of the two big countries from pot 2 with Mexico.

Italy - The defending champs had by far the best draw. With New Zealand and Slovakia they got countries that were certainly in the bottom two in their pot. Paraguay are tougher to rate, but I think most everyone would put them in the bottom half of their pot and some second worst. Their draw for the round of 16 is favorable as well as they are very likely to get the best of Denmark, Japan and Cameroon.

Losers

Spain - Others are likely to say that Spain had a good to great draw. I think they were one of most unlucky countries. The reason for that is that from most any group they would be significant favorites to advance, even to advance first. The group draw isn't very relevant for the kings of Europe. The knockout draw will lead to what should be the best round of 16 match ever for the neutrals but it is absolutely brutal. Spain will play one of Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire and Portugal in the round of 16. That is astounding. The two runaway favorites in the tournament, at least before the draw, were Brazil and Spain. Portugal and especially the Côte d'Ivoire are both considered to be in the second tier of teams that definitely have a shot. There is more than a 99% chance that Spain will play one of those teams. Looking forward to the round of 8 is tougher, but if they can get out of that their reward is likely to be Italy, who matchup well with them. En route to winning Euro 2008, Spain had to best Italy on penalties after a neither team scored a goal in 120 minutes.

Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Portugal - Not a lot to say here. Absolutely brutal for these countries. Not only is one of the best teams in the competition going to be eliminated in the group stage, but one of the advancing teams, probably the one finishing second, has to face Spain in the first knockout round.

Mixed Bag:

The Netherlands - It's tough to argue that the Dutch group draw was great. Denmark and Japan are both pretty good teams that can give teams problems. Cameroon are a very talented side with the much discussed advantage of playing on their home continent. That's a tougher than average group. Having said that, the Dutch should finish top of the group as they are pretty easily the best side. Their reward in the round of 16 if they do that is most likely Paraguay or Slovakia, so that part is great. On the other hand, their round of 8 match is most likely whoever wins the group with Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire and Portugal, with Brazil most likely. There aren't usually a lot of easy wins in the last 8 but it could obviously be a lot better than that. So some good and bad news.

Germany - I thought of putting Germany in the winners category, but decided to put them here instead. Australia, Serbia and Ghana is a tough draw as all three were among the best teams in their pot. Germany still should get out of that in first. If they do, they will likely play the United States, Slovenia or Algeria. Any of those would be below average for the round of 16. Looking further ahead, their round of 8 match is against the best of Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea and Greece or the second best of France, Mexico, Uruguay and South Africa. So barring a big upset, if they can advance first from the group stage Germany will have one of the easier round of 16 opponents and the easiest in the quarterfinal. Even if you take into account their pretty tough group, for me the group of death because all four teams are good, no other team has as clear a path to the semifinal.

UEFA Group 4: Russia - Germany Preview

I may be overreacting to Euro 2008, but Russia - Germany is likely to be the best match in all of qualifying. We're getting a possible final in the qualifying round. While neither would be a favorite, I think both teams are in the second tier of countries that have an outside shot at winning the World Cup.

The Situation

Germany currently sit one point ahead of Russia. Both teams are expected to win their last match. Germany host Finland while Russia travel to Azerbaijan. Assuming they both get the win Wednesday Saturday's match will decide the group. If Russia win then they win the group and qualify automatically. If Germany get a result then they win the group. Both teams are guaranteed a playoff spot even if they lose their last two matches.

History

History is on Germany's side. Russia, as Russia or the USSR, have never beaten Germany or West Germany in a competitive match. I personally think that means nothing as it relates to how this match will turn out, but it is an interesting anecdote given the nonfootball history of the countries. More relevantly, Germany are up a point because they beat the Russians 2-1 in Dortmund a year ago. Here are links to the goals from that match: Podolski Ballack Arshavin. (Sidenote: what's up with the shhh celebration when you score to put your team down a goal?). In that match, Germany dominated the first half, going into the break up 2-0. While Russia were the better side in the second, it wasn't enough to overcome their deficit.

The Ground

A big story related to the match is that it will be played on artificial turf in Moscow at Luzhniki Stadium. That should help the Russians because they will be, at least in theory, more accustomed to the surface plus they play more of a short passing game. I personally think that artificial turf should not be allowed, but maybe it is cheaper so some smaller countries have to go with it. Russia is not such a country and it seems bizarre that they are playing on an artificial surface. I suppose it could have something to do with the snowy and icy conditions in the Russian winter but the forecast for Moscow is for above freezing temperatures.

Injuries

For Russia, there seem to be no injuries that will keep a player out of the match. The biggest injury story is Andei Arshavin, who has been battling a knee injury. Based on his recent performances for Arsenal, including a goal in the 6-2 thrashing of Blackburn last weekend, I'd say the knee is fine.

Germany are less lucky. They will not have the services of starting goalkeeper Robert Enke who is sick. René Adler is expected to replace him. Adler has little experience at this level, though he did play in the previous match against Russia and recorded clean sheets in qualifiers against Wales and Azerbaijan. Given the intensity of the match and the likelihood of plenty of chances for Russia, it'll be interesting to see how the young keeper handles the pressure.

Predictions

I'll mix it up and give my personal thoughts before going with the objective predictions of my current best model. Russia is a very good attacking team that plays a pretty aggressive style to begin with. They have now mathematically locked up second place can count on a German win Wednesday over Finland so they a draw does them no good compared to a loss. This will cause them to push even harder to score. Germany are solid at both ends of the pitch so I expect the match to be extremely entertaining with plenty of chances for both teams. For a scoreline prediction, I'll say that Russia win 2-1.

The PLM predicts a lower-scoring, less-exciting affair. Again the usual caveat applies. The model just uses results, it does not include differences in motivation and incentives compared to previous matches. As I argued above, Russia get little from a draw and a lot from a win so they should be more attack oriented than they have been in previous matches. With that said, the model predicts a 36.5% chance of a win for Russia, 27.7% chance of a German win and a 35.8% probability of a draw. The most likely scorelines are 1-0 and 1-1, each with about a 15% likelihood. This goes in line with the overall prediction, which is Germany to go through top 74% of the time and Russia 26%.

I don't have strong feelings either way about either of these national teams, but Russia is in my opinion one of the most entertaining teams to watch play so I am hoping for a home win.

2010 World Cup Seeding, Summary Version

Note: This article was written with the assumption that FIFA would use a formula similar to the one they had used for the previous 3 or 4 World Cups. They instead went purely off of the October FIFA rankings making all of this incorrect. Here is a recent article on the draw setup.

I tend to write too much so as a service I'll at times have a summary article for those that just want the damn point instead of reading through all the methodology stuff. Here is the original article. Read it if you want the methodology.

Being seeded is a big edge because it means your opponents are not as strong.

The following teams will definitely be seeded:
1. South Africa
2. Brazil
3. Italy
4. Spain
5. England

The last three spots go in this order:
1. Germany
2. Argentina
3. France
4. Portugal
5. The Netherlands
6. Mexico
7. The United States

So Germany, Argentina and France will all be seeded if they qualify. Portugal will be seeded if they qualify and one of those teams slips up. The Netherlands need for two of those teams, including Portugal, to fail to qualify in order to be seeded. Mexico need for three of Germany, Argentina, France and Portugal to not make it to South Africa and the United States need for all four of those teams to fail to qualify.

2010 World Cup seeding

Note: This article was written with the assumption that FIFA would use a formula similar to the one they had used for the previous 3 or 4 World Cups. They instead went purely off of the October FIFA rankings making all of this incorrect. Here is a recent article on the draw setup.

This December they'll have the draw, where the groups for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa will be decided. The teams are separated into 4 different pods and each group consists of one team from each pod. Three of the pods are done geographically so that teams from the same confederation are in the same pod. The other pod contains all the seeded teams.

The idea behind seeding is to ensure that there is some semblance of balance in the groups. Nobody would want to see Brazil, Spain, Italy and South Korea all in the same group. Well, I guess some would but it would clearly be bad for the tournament. So the goal of the seeding process is to put the host plus the 7 other best teams into the same pod. The difference between being a seeded team and not is often the difference between almost sure passage into the round of 16 and being put into the group of death. If you are seeded then you are not going to face a top team and likely will have only one above-average opponent in your group.

Determining the 7 best teams is certainly no easy task and there is always controversy when some teams feel that they should be included. To determine the 7 seeded teams, FIFA goes by a formula. This formula has two parts - one uses results from the last two (it used to be three) World Cups and the other uses the FIFA rankings.

Previous World Cup Results

The first part of the formula is based on the results of the last two World Cups, or at least it was for Germany '06. For Korea/Japan and before they used the previous three.

For each World Cup, the teams are ranked from 1-32. The first four spots go to the champion, runner up, third-place match winner and its loser. 5-8 are the teams that got eliminated in the quarterfinal round. These are sorted based on overall performance which I understand to mean that they go by points in the group stage and break ties by overall goal differential and goals scored. Teams 9-16 are the similarly sorted losers of the first knockout round. 17-24 are the teams that finished third in their group and 25-32 are the teams that finished last. Once the teams have been ranked in this manner, they are given points in reverse - 32 for first, 31 for second and so on down to 17 for the team placing 16th. For those teams eliminated in the group stage, the third-place finishers all get 9 points and those finishing fourth get 8.

In other words, you get 8 points for finishing last in your group, 9 points for finishing third, 17 for being 16th best and then 1 additional point for every spot higher up. In case you're still with me, the number of World Cup points each team gets is the weighted average of these points putting 2/3 weight on 2006 and 1/3 on 2002.

For example, Italy won the last World Cup and were eliminated in the first knockout round in South Korea. As it turns out, they were 15th overall for the 2002 World Cup according to the above method so they get 32 points for 2006 and 18 points for 2002. Their total World Cup points for seeding purposes is 32(2/3) + 18(1/3) = 27.33

FIFA World Rankings

For the next part, they take all 32 teams and look at their FIFA rankings from December 2007, December 2008 and November this year. For each year they give 32 to highest-ranked team (currently Brazil) down to 1 for the lowest ranked team (probably Bahrain if they qualify). The number of world ranking points each team gets is just the average of the three rankings.

Unlike the World Cup points, it isn't possible at this point to determine how many world ranking points each team will get. For one, it will be based on the rankings from this November. More importantly though, because it uses the Borda count method, teams' scores will change based on which teams qualify. It is possible, though to compare teams as I'll explain below.

Figuring Out the Seeded Teams

To determine where teams would be ranked for seeding purposes, I first got a rough idea where they would be based on the FIFA world rankings. To do that I gave points out assuming the top 32 each year were the 32 teams in the World Cup. That's a bad assumption, but again it's just to get a rough idea what the top teams are, that's not what I'm using to get the final results.

Here were the results of that:


Teams in green are now in and the teams in blue are very likely to qualify without needing a playoff.

Based on that chart, it's pretty clear that Brazil, Italy, Spain and England will be seeded along with Germany if they qualify. Below that Argentina, France, Portugal and the Netherlands are bunched up so I'll have to sort through those individually. Also, Croatia, Mexico, the United States and possibly the Ukraine, Paraguay and Sweden should be looked at. Once the worst of Mexico and the United States have been sorted we can stop because there would be 7 teams that have qualified or very likely will.

To compare each pair, I looked at how many teams are between them in the rankings that have been or could be eliminated from the competition in qualifying. To see how this works, let's go through Argentina and France. Looking at the table above, France stand a point behind in the standings, mainly because they have a worse rank score. Here are the relevant rankings, using today to represent the November rankings:
2007
Argentina - 1
France - 7

2008
Argentina - 6
France - 11

2009
Argentina - 8
France - 10

A useful thing is that if we eliminate teams from these rankings because they didn't qualify, that will only help the lower-ranked team compared to the chart. In other words, eliminating teams above both France and Argentina doesn't matter, but eliminating teams in between them helps France. How much? It would move them up 1 point for that year, but because they are averaged, each team eliminated gains the lower-ranked team a third of a point.

Using this method, I can't say what the final numbers will be, but I can compare teams and give a ranking. Unless the final FIFA rankings change drastically I can therefore say which teams will be seeded.

For France and Argentina, the teams between them in the rankings are Brazil, Italy, Spain, Germany, the Czech Republic for the first year Croatia, England, Russia and Turkey for the second year and currently Croatia is the only team between them. They need to knock out three teams. It's likely that the Czech Republic and Turkey are gone but Russia and Croatia (counted twice) are currently looking at a playoff spot. If either of those are eliminated or if France leap frogs Argentina in the final rankings then Les Bleus will be ahead of them. It doesn't actually turn out to matter because if both make it then both will be seeded. For now let's say Argentina rate higher as that will make things easier.

Next let's compare France and Portugal. This one is immediate. France has more World Cup points and is ranked above Portugal in every ranking so they will be seeded ahead of the Portuguese if both make it. Moving on to Portugal and the Netherlands, Portugal have more World Cup points and the Netherlands are more highly ranked every year. Because eliminating teams can only help Portugal, they rate above the Netherlands for seeding purposes. The Netherlands will rate above Croatia because they have more World Cup points and are ranked higher. Mexico and Croatia is the first place where the rankings switch. Mexico need to eliminate just two teams that are ranked in between them and the Croats and that's sure to happen. As a result, it becomes necessary to compare the Netherlands and Mexico. With the Netherlands 11.67 points ahead on the chart, Mexico would need to have 35 teams ranked between them on the three rankings not make the finals. Just glancing at them, I don't think that will happen but it I suppose it is possible.

So now we have a list that looks like this:
Germany
Argentina
France
Portugal
Netherlands
Mexico

To continue, we need to look at Croatia and the United States. The US needs to gain 1.33 points, or eliminate 5 teams that ranked between them to jump over Croatia. That will happen, so the United States will be seeded before Croatia if it comes to that.

This brings us to Mexico and the United States. This is like Portugal and the Netherlands above. Mexico have more World Cup points and are ranked lower than the US every year, so eliminating teams will only help them. I hate to be the bearer of bad news for my American readers but for seeding purposes Mexico once again will rank ahead of the United States.

Looking down the chart, Sweden or the Ukraine could also pass the United States depending on which teams make it. I don't think that's likely, but it could happen so it's worth mentioning.

So What Teams Will Be Seeded?

These teams definitely will be seeded:
1. South Africa as hosts
2. Italy
3. Spain
4. Brazil
5. England

The last three spots will be given out in this order based on which teams qualify:
1. Germany
2. Argentina
3. France (possibly flip these)
4. Portugal
5. The Netherlands
6. Mexico
7. United States

So for the Netherlands, Mexico and the United States it comes down to how many of Germany, Argentina, France and Portugal fail to qualify. The US need all of them to fail, for Mexico only one can make it through and the Netherlands will be seeded if at most two of them qualify. Moving up the ladder, if Portugal qualify then they will be seeded if at least one of Germany, Argentina and France are out. Germany, Argentina and France will all be seeded if they make the trip to South Africa.