Bundesliga Update

It's been a while since I wrote about the Bundesliga. In my last post on the subject, I noted that Leverkusen were at the top of the table and had played a very easy schedule. Based on that, I predicted that they would extend their lead which was then at 3 points. That hasn't happened. After drawing in Munich and crushing Stuttgart at home they have two disappointing draws - at Hannover and then last Friday against Hertha Berlin. I still believe that they are the best team, but the gap is small and I could certainly see them falling.

On the other side, Bayern Munich seem to have found a rhythm. They won their last three matches, albeit against bottom half of the table opponents, by a combined 8 goals. They also destroyed Juventus in Torino in a match that was crucial for both sides. With the draws by Leverkusen, Bayern find themselves just two points out. That's a far cry from where they were last I wrote. I'm not ready to make them favorites but I definitely think they have a better shot now than I did before.

Here are the results-based rankings:



GFR - Ranking by goals for, adjusted for schedule
GAR - Ranking by goals against, adjusted for schedule
EGD - expected goal difference if they played a new season starting today at the level shown by results.

Here are the rankings using the model that incorporates stats:



Epts is the expected points if they played a new season starting today at the level shown by results and stats from all matches thus far.

Both models have Leverkusen top, as does the league table. Near the top, Werder Bremen are two spots higher when stats are taken into account. Bayern and Hamburg go the other way. The biggest movers overall were Mainz, who drop 5 places, and Stuttgart, who moved up 4 spots. While the stats model is still pretty new and I'm working on it, as a general rule the teams that are higher in that model than the goals-only one have usually gotten unlucky and run below expectation in goals given how their matches have gone. On the flip side, teams better in the goals-only ranking have been lucky and scored more goals than expected. I believe that the stats-based model is better when it comes to being predictive.