Monday, November 9, 2009

Italian Serie A Rankings

This season I've seriously neglected the Serie A. This is somewhat for good reason because the league is shaping up to be a one-horse race. Inter have just looked far and away the best club. Whether you look at points, they have 29 of 36, or goal differential, +19 for an edge of over 1.5 goals per match, they have been impressive while other teams thought to be contenders have been inconsistent. Behind them, Juventus have gotten decent results but seem too shaky, particularly at the back, to put too much pressure on Mourinho's boys. AC Milan have recovered from their early struggles and now sit third, but other than their Champions League match in the Bernabeu they've looked a lot more like old AC Milan than the AC Milan of old. Napoli were considered by many, including me, to potentially fight for the Scudetto but they have struggled and are midtable 11 points off the lead.

It's early still, too early to declare things over but I've seen nothing in watching matches or analyzing results to suggest anything other than Inter running away with it.

Here are the rankings:

O rank - rank by goal-scoring ability
D rank - rank by goal-conceding ability
EGD - expected goal difference if all teams played a full season at the level the results thus far have shown

Other than Inter rating nearly 30 goals better than any other club, the first thing I noticed is that I have AC Milan seventh despite them being third in the table. I believe this to be due to them having had better than average luck when it comes to close-match results. In contrast, Bari are 2 goals better in goal differential but 4 points further back.

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