UEFA Playoff Predictions

I'm working on a couple other things so I'll keep this short. Here are the predictions for the playoffs tomorrow. These are probabilities of advancing according to my models. As I said before, using logit is less sensitive to quality of the two teams. It seems too much so but I'm not sure so I'm giving both the logit and poisson versions of the averages model. I'll list the logit version first and the Poisson second.

France - Ireland:
France - 83.3%, 92.2%
Ireland - 16.7%, 7.8%

Bosnia-Herzegovina - Portugal:
BH - 22.6%, 17.9%
Portugal - 77.4%, 82.1%

Ukraine - Greece:
Ukraine - 49.2%, 48.2%
Greece - 50.8%, 51.8%

Slovenia - Russia:
Slovenia - 30.8%, 26.2%
Russia - 69.2%, 73.8%