Monday, November 9, 2009

EPL Rankings and Update - 9 November

Chelsea picked up a gritty win at home against Manchester United to go five clear, though Arsenal still have a match in hand. Earlier today Liverpool only managed a draw at Anfield against Birmingham. I am going to claim defeat in my prediction that the big four would stay in the race through the end of the year. I was a full two months off as Liverpool are now 11 points back and out of it already. Man City also got a disappointing result with a 3-3 draw at home against Burnley, the Clarets first points away from home this season. Villa and Spurs both picked up expected wins to continue their fight for a spot in Europe.

Here are the rankings, using my new averages model:

The Poisson rankings have a few differences. In offensive ranking, the Poisson model flips Liverpool and Chelsea. Defensively it flips Arsenal and Man City, leaving Spurs in between. Overall the Poisson model puts Man City one spot below Tottenham instead of above. Nearer the bottom of the list, the Poisson model has Burnley 15th, Blackburn 16th, Portsmouth 17th and Bolton 18th. Otherwise they are the same in terms of ordering.

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