CONMEBOL - Matchday 17 Preview

Like the other confederations, it's getting down to the wire in the CONMEBOL with the final two matchdays this week. Here's the current table.



Here's a quick breakdown for each team:
Brazil and Paraguay are 100% qualified.

Chile need a win or two draws to get there mathematically. They could also get in Saturday if both Argentina and Venezuela fail to win their matches. In practice, it may be possible for Argentina to catch them if Maradona's boys get two wins and Chile a draw and a loss but it would depend on the scorelines. Right now Chile are up 6 in goal differential so if their loss and the Argentina wins are by multiple goals then they could drop. In this bad scenario, Ecuador would also have to beat Uruguay Saturday to drop the Chilenos down to the playoff spot. The playoff or better is all-but guaranteed. Chile are certain to finish above either Ecuador or Uruguay so they could only be eliminated in sixth if Argentina and Venezuela catch them. Right now Chile are 6 points ahead of Venezuela and up 12 goals in goal differential so Venezuela passing them isn't realistic. In summary, Chile are effectively in the playoff round right now and one more point quite likely will do the job and two more points or any draw or loss by Argentina puts them through automatically.

Ecuador are in a great spot but have a tough schedule ahead. They host Uruguay and then travel south to Chile on Wednesday. Their fate largely rests in their own hands. If they lose both then they will almost certainly be eliminated, not even making the playoff round. With two wins they are obviously in. With a draw and a win they are guaranteed at least a playoff spot but would depend on the Uruguay - Argentina result to make it automatically. Two draws or a draw and a loss and they do a lot of scoreboard watching. With two draws they could be anywhere from automatically in (if Argentina get a draw or loss Saturday and Uruguay - Argentina ends in a draw) to completely out (if Argentina beat Peru Saturday and Uruguay beat Argentina).

Argentina can guarantee at least a playoff spot with a win in Uruguay Wednesday. To qualify automatically they need for Ecuador to get at least one point fewer in their last two matches and to keep Uruguay from passing them. In other words, they can get in with two wins if Ecuador slip up at all and could get in with a draw and a win if Ecuador get two draws, a win and a loss, or two losses.

Despite being in 6th right now, Uruguay can guarantee a spot in South Africa with two wins. Of potential importance, Uruguay should easily win the tiebreaker with any combination of Ecuador, Argentina, Venezuela and Colombia because they are currently +8 in goal differential. Therefore, a draw against Ecuador and a win over Argentina would put the Uruguayos in at least fifth, fourth if Ecuador fail to beat Chile. A win against Ecuador and a draw against Argentina is not nearly as good; Uruguay would be out if Argentina beat Peru and Ecuador beat Chile.

Venezuela and Colombia can possibly get in but will need a lot of help even to make the playoff. Both face a brutal schedule: Venezuela host Paraguay and then travel to Campo Grande, Brazil while Colombia play at home against Chile and then travel to Paraguay.


Group Prediction

The PLM gives the following probabilities:

Top 4:
Brazil - 100%
Paraguay - 100%
Chile - 99.9%
Argentina - 44.3%
Uruguay - 32.2%
Ecuador - 21.8%
Colombia - 1.4%
Venezuela - 0.4%

5th:
Ecuador - 32.2%
Argentina - 31.5%
Uruguay - 27.2%
Colombia - 6.1%
Venezuela - 2.8%
Chile - 0.1%

Top 5 (automatic or playoff):
Brazil - 100%
Paraguay - 100%
Chile - 100%
Argentina - 75.9%
Uruguay - 59.4%
Ecuador - 54.0%
Colombia - 7.6%
Venezuela - 3.2%

Keep in mind that these predictions do not take into account teams having nothing to play for. As a result, I think Ecuador will be more likely than the model predicts because their match in Chile may be a friendly for the home side.

Match Predictions

Colombia - Chile:
Colombia win: 34.7%
Draw: 39.1%
Chile win: 26.3%
Most likely scoreline: 0-0

Ecuador - Uruguay:
Ecuador win: 42.1%
Draw: 30.8%
Uruguay win: 27.1%
Most likely scoreline: 1-1

Argentina - Peru
Argentina win: 81.3%
Draw: 15.4%
Peru win: 3.3%
Most likely scoreline: 2-0

Venezuela - Paraguay
Venezuela win: 31.4%
Draw: 34.1%
Paraguay win: 34.5%
Most likely scoreline: 1-1

Bolivia - Brazil
Bolivia win: 7.7%
Draw: 20.0%
Brazil win: 72.4%
Most likely scoreline: 0-2

CONMEBOL Qualification: Post Matchday 16

Sorry for the delay. I got caught up in some of the other stuff. In the future I'll try to get things up within the next day or two.

I watched most of Paraguay - Argentina. The 1-0 scoreline does no justice to how much better Paraguay looked. My view before was that Argentina were struggling a bit but in no real trouble to qualify. Now they sit in the playoff spot and frankly do not look like able to pull themselves out of it. Costa Rica have been struggling as well, but while Argentina would clearly be favorites I don't think you can consider a playoff close to a lock. As a player I love Diego and think he was the best to ever play the game. I'm far from sold on his skills as a manager, though. It's easy to read too much from short-term results, many including me thought this about Mexico for example, but it seems to be more than just variance.

Results:

Brazil 4 - 2 Chile
Venezuela 3 - 1 Peru
Paraguay 1 - 0 Argentina
Uruguay 3 - 1 Colombia
Bolivia 1 - 3 Ecuador

Ignoring the Argentina match, the teams that needed strong results to stay in contention got them. Ecuador's win put them into fourth place. With the solid home win, Uruguay have turned it into a 3-horse race for two spots: one automatic, one a playoff, most likely with Costa Rica.

Here is the table:



With two matches to go, here are the schedules:

Chile: Colombia away, Ecuador home
Ecuador: Uruguay home, Chile away
Argentina: Peru home, Uruguay away
Uruguay: Ecuador away, Argentina home

Ecuador and Uruguay clearly have the harder schedules out of the three. Because Uruguay plays both, all three teams control their own destiny in the sense that they will at least make the top 5 if they win both of their matches.

Poisson Predictions

Brazil and Paraguay are in. Chile are also effectively in. They made the top 4 in 9,975 out of 10,000 simulations. The Chilenos are guaranteed at least a playoff spot and any draw by them or draw or loss for Argentina sees them through in the top 4. On the flip side, Bolivia and Peru are eliminated and Colombia and Venezuela very close to it. Both have a less than 1% chance at a top 4 finish and between 2 and 3% for fifth place.

I'll focus on the middle three. Here are the percentages for each of qualifying automatically with that 4th spot:

Uruguay - 35.2%
Ecuador - 34.7%
Argentina - 29.1%

Here are the chances of finishing 5th:

Argentina - 54.5%
Ecuador - 24.6%
Uruguay - 15.3%

Finally, here are the overall qualification percentages, assuming the playoff is a coin flip. As I hinted at above and mentioned in a previous article, I think any of these teams would be a favorite against Costa Rica. I think for Argentina you can add as much as 10% because they are so likely to make the playoff.

Argentina - 56.4%
Ecuador - 47.0%
Uruguay - 42.9%

CONMEBOL Qualifying - 15 Matches In

Brazil are now mathematically in. Paraguay and Chile are just shy of that. Despite losing to Brazil in convincing fashion, Argentina are still in great shape, though worse than usual for them, because of the other results. In the battle for fifth, or even fourth if Argentina continue to slip up, Colombia came up big with a 2-0 win over Ecuador and Uruguay damaged their own chances with a loss in Peru.

Here is the table:


Here are the remaining schedules for the 4th through 8th teams:

Argentina
Paraguay away
Peru home
Uruguay away

Colombia
Uruguay away
Chile home
Paraguay away

Ecuador
Bolivia away
Uruguay home
Chile away

Paraguay
Argentina home
Venezuela away
Colombia home

Venezuela
Peru home
Paraguay home
Brazil away

From hardest to easiest schedules, it appears to go Colombia, Ecuador, Argentina, Venezuela and Uruguay with the easiest.

Poisson Predictions



The first column gives the percentage chance of finishing in the top four and qualifying automatically. The second gives the percentage for finishing in 5th and playing a playoff against the 4th CONCACAF team. The next column is the qualifying percentage if it is assumed that the team would have a 50% chance of winning the playoff. The last column is the change in that number from before last Saturday's matches.

As you can see, Uruguay really shot themselves in the foot with the loss. Argentina actually gained despite their loss. This is mostly because the model didn't give them much of a chance against Brazil anyway and also the other results were much better than expected for them - most notably Uruguay losing. Colombia essentially tripled their chances.

Wednesday's Matches:

Other than the first one, the model predicts that the home team will be heavily favored in every match.

Bolivia - Ecuador
Bolivia win: 49%
Draw: 23%
Ecuador win: 28%

Ecuador could really use a result here and a win would put them in position to even fight for fourth. With a win they go to 44% overall to qualify, 26% automatically in fourth. A draw actually helps them a bit - they'd go up to 26.5% overall but be a few percent less likely to go through automatically. A loss doesn't completely kill their chances but they go down to just 2% for a top 4 finish - they'd need a lot of help to get there - and a 12% shot overall.

Paraguay - Argentina
Paraguay win: 64%
Draw: 23%
Argentina win: 13%

Paraguay are all but mathematically in so this result hardly matters. If Argentina pull off a win then they would have one foot in - 96% for a top 4 finish and 98% overall. Just a draw puts them in a solid position - 77% for top 4 and 87% overall. A loss isn't that bad, but it does reduce their chances to 57% for the top 4 and 75% overall. In other words, winning is significantly better than a draw but a draw is just as big compared to a loss. It's important for Diego's boys to keep their head up and fight for a draw if they get down.

Venezuela - Peru
Venezuela win: 70%
Draw: 19%
Peru win: 11%

This is a must-win for Venezuela whose chances aren't good anyway. With a draw they are about one in a thousand to make it. With a win they have about a 3% chance.

Uruguay - Colombia
Uruguay win: 71%
Draw: 23%
Colombia win: 6%

This match is obviously very important for both teams. For Uruguay, they could rebound nicely from the disappointment of Saturday and put themselves into a pretty good position if they can get the win. They would have about a 27% chance at qualifying automatically and a 46% chance overall. A draw would really damage them and drop them to just an 11% chance of finishing in the top 4 and 20% chance overall. A loss pretty much eliminates Uruguay as they go to just a 6% overall shot at qualification. If Colombia get the likely loss then they are just 2% to make it. A draw raises that to 12% and they go into a great position with a 40% chance, 16% for the top 4, with a win.

In short, the loser is eliminated and the winner is in pretty good shape. A draw is a lot better for either team than a loss.

Brazil - Chile
Brazil win: 83%
Draw: 13%
Chile win: 4%

This match is a friendly for Brazil and practically that for Chile.

World Cup Qualifying - CONMEBOL

How It Works

All 10 teams play under the league format. Each team plays every other team twice, once in each country. The top four teams automatically advance to the finals in South Africa, the fifth-place team has to win a playoff against the fourth-place team from CONCACAF.


Where the Group Is Now



Brazil are sitting pretty at the top, 7 points clear of the playoff spot. Chile are doing quite well just one point behind. Paraguay are also in great shape, four points clear of fifth. Argentina do not look as good as usual and sit just two points ahead of fifth-place Ecuador going into their match with Brazil this weekend. At the bottom, Bolivia and Peru are effectively out of it while Colombia and Venezuela all have a shot but are running out of time with only four matches to go. Uruguay should challenge Ecuador for that fifth spot and could even catch Argentina.

Peru and Bolivia have been significantly worse this qualifying campaign than the bottom teams have historically been - with the exception of Venezuela before France '98 with just 3 points. Four years ago at this point both were the bottom two teams as they are now, but in the other order. Bolivia had 13 points and Peru 14. As a result, it looks like more points will be required this year to make the finals. Four years ago at this point, there was a 3-way tie for fifth. Colombia, Chile and Uruguay all had 17 points. Right now fifth is a full 3 points higher. Argentina haven't looked nearly as good as usual and Chile have given us a much better showing than they historically have. Otherwise there's nothing too strange going on.


Poisson Predictions

I put the qualifying results into the Poisson model. I also ran a version where I included the matches from Copa America, which took place in 2007. It didn't change things much. Putting those results in made Ecuador look a bit better and Uruguay a bit worse. In qualification chances, it bumped Ecuador up about 7%, decreased Uruguay 6.2% and also reduced Colombia's chances 0.7%. Other teams changed only slightly.

Here is the chart with just the qualification results:



The format is similar to what I used in the CONCACAF article. The first numbered column gives the percentage chance of finishing in the top 4, which automatically qualifies you for South Africa 2010. The second column gives the chance of finishing in fifth place, which puts you in a playoff against the 4th-best team from CONCACAF. The out column gives the chance of finishing 6th or worse - this eliminates you from the competition. The last column gives the chance of qualification if a potential playoff with the CONCACAF team would be a 50/50 proposition. As I said in the earlier article, I think this underestimates the chances a bit because whichever team finishes fifth here is probably a small favorite over the CONCACAF team finishing fourth.

As you can see, Brazil, Chile and Paraguay are effectively in and Bolivia and Peru are effectively out. In 100,000 simulations, Brazil finished in 5th 8 times and the other 99,992 times they were in the top four. I'd say they're pretty safe. Similarly, Peru didn't finish in the top 5 for even one of the 100,000 simulations.

Things are much more interesting in the middle. Argentina are still favored to get in, but they're certainly no lock. Of the four other contenders, Uruguay rates the best. This is likely due to their schedule - they play at Peru this weekend and face rivals Colombia and Argentina at home. Their toughest test is a trip to Ecuador. Meanwhile, Argentina have Brazil left on their schedule and Ecuador wrap things up with a trip to Chile. That likely means that the model will underrate Ecuador's chances because most likely Chile will have nothing to play for in that match and a win for Ecuador wouldn't be unlikely in the event that they need one, even though they are the worse team and playing away.

Saturday's Matches


Argentina - Brazil

Importance for Argentina:
A win would be a huge boost to their chances, and even getting a single point would help. With a win, Argentina go from the 53% chance they currently have to automatically qualify to 78%. Overall their chances go up to 88% to make it to South Africa if you assume they'd be 50/50 but it's probably more like 93% since they'd be a solid favorite in a playoff. So a win gives them about a 10% better chance of making it. A draw leaves their numbers pretty much unchanged. A loss would be bad though, and the likelihood that they finish in the top 4 would drop 14 percentage points to 39%. They would lose about 10% for their overall qualification chances.

Importance for Brazil:
Effectively none. They're in either way.

Colombia - Ecuador

Importance for Colombia:
Colombia's chances are quite slim either way. A win makes them about twice as likely to finish in fifth, which about doubles their chances of qualifying to a little over 4%. If they lose they are effectively out. A draw roughly cuts their chances in half.

Importance for Ecuador:
This match for Ecuador is pretty important. A loss reduces their chances of finishing in the top 4 by about 5.5% and their overall chances by about 10%. A draw keeps them pretty much where they are, they only lose a couple percentage points. A win would be a huge boost. If they win then their chances of a top 4 finish roughly triple to about 21%. Overall they would be about twice as likely to qualify going from 19% to 38%.

Peru - Uruguay

Importance for Peru:
None. They're out.

Importance for Uruguay:
This is close to a must-win for Uruguay. With a win they are in pretty good shape - probably in fifth place, possibly just a point behind Argentina in fourth. Their chances of finishing in the top 4 go up 10 points to 49% and they'd become about 2:1 favorites overall to qualify with a win. A draw would reduce their chances to 27% for the top 4 and about 44% overall. A loss would be devastating and they would drop to just a 15% shot at going automatically and 32% overall.

Paraguay - Bolivia
Chile - Venezuela

Both of these matches feature a team that is virtually certain to make it and one that is just as likely to finish outside the top 5. Chile and Paraguay would be pretty much unaffected even by a loss. If Venezuela pull the upset then they would go from practically no shot to having a small chance - about 8%.