Sunday Preview: Liverpool - Manchester United

My apologies for getting this out late. I was hoping to have it Thursday but some personal things came up plus I've been working on a new model and some other stuff.

The biggest rivalry in England has no doubt lost its luster but remains one of the better rivalries in sport.

History

The clubs at each end of the Mersey are easily the two most successful clubs in England. Both have 18 domestic league titles, both have 14 domestic cup titles (though Manchester United have 11 FA Cups to Liverpool's 7). Liverpool have the edge in Europe with 5 Champions League or European Cups plus three UEFA Cups. United have 3 Champions League/European Cups and a Cup Winners' Cup.

I say the rivalry has lost its luster because most all of the above for Liverpool happened over 20 years ago. In the very likely event that Liverpool fail to win the league title this season, they will have gone 20 seasons without doing so. You could probably be a millionaire now if you'd bet just a few bucks (or quid if you like) on them having 20 dry seasons in a row. In contrast, Manchester United have won 11 league titles in that span.

Looking head-to-head, in league matches Liverpool have won 51 matches, United 58 matches and they have 43 draws. That 7-win gap is exactly from the last 19 years where Liverpool have not won the title. In that span Liverpool have won 11, United 18 and they have had 9 draws. In the last 10 seasons at Anfield Liverpool have 3 wins, Manchester United 5 wins and they played to a draw twice.

Form

Liverpool are on an historically bad run. They have lost 4 matches in a row in all competitions, which hasn't happened in more than 20 years. Looking just at the league, they have 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5. Manchester United have been going in a more Manchester Unitedly direction. They have 10 wins and a draw in their last 11 matches in all competitions and 4 wins and a draw in their last five league matches.

Of note, Rafa Benitez has a lot of pressure on him and it's conceivable that the Liverpool manager could get fired, sacked as it were, if things go really badly tomorrow.

Injuries

Injuries are a big story, unfortunately. For Liverpool, Torres and Glen Johnson have been out and Gerrard was subbed out early in the Champions League loss due to a nagging groin injury. All three are in doubt but it looks likely that Torres and Johnson will play. On the other side, the most important injury news is that Manchester United are expected to be without Rooney due to an injured calf. Darren Fletcher and Park Ji-Sung will be out as well. Fortunately for them, Giggs and Evra are expected to be back.

Scoring and Conceding

Based on schedules and goals scored, the model rates the two teams as almost exactly even offensively. The biggest difference is at the other end. Defensively, Manchester United rate just behind Chelsea in second. Liverpool are significantly worse, ranking 7th defensively. The model says that if they played a full season at the level shown so far, Liverpool would be expected to concede 15 more goals than United.

Predictions

The model does not take form or injuries into account (something I'm working on probably with a new model). Given how extreme both are for this match, keep that in mind. It gives Liverpool a slight edge, largely due to playing at home. It says they will win 39% of the time, Manchester United 33% and they will play to a draw 28% of the time. To be honest I'm not sure how it should be adjusted. Gerrard being out or far less than 100%, Torres not being at his best assuming he plays and Liverpool's awful form and the potential chaos surrounding Rafa Benitez all go against Liverpool. On the other hand, Rooney being out is a blow for United. I think that overall probably favors Man U. I would say flipping them seems about right, so 33% for Liverpool, 39% for Man United and 28% for the draw.

For scorelines, according to the model the most likely result is a 1-1 draw with 2-1 and 1-2 after that. I think with Torres not fully fit, Gerrard and Rooney likely out, 1-0 or 0-1 are more likely to be winning scores than 2-1 and 1-2. I'll make my prediction 0-1 for Manchester United.

Manchester Derby Post-Match Summary and Thoughts

Having just finished rewatching the match, here is a summary of the derby and some thoughts.

For those that didn't see it, the match started off extremely shaky for City. Bridge had a horribly headed clearance in the first minute. The next minute was even worse as Evra ran into the box completely unmarked on a throw in. He took the ball down to the goal line and played it back in to Rooney at the corner of the six-yard box. There were a couple defenders near him, but he had space to play the ball between their desperate sliding challenges and bury it. For the next 12 or so minutes, it went back and forth with United looking the better of the two sides. In the 16th minute, United keeper Foster tried to play a ball to the outside of the box back in to pick it up when Carlos Tevez stole the ball off him. Tevez played the ball back to Barry who put it between the near post and Vidic who was where you would normally see the goalkeeper. For the rest of the first half things were pretty even and each team failed to convert a clear chance with Berbatov heading over the bar right in front of goal and Tevez hitting the post from inside the box.

The second half started similarly to the first. United scored three minutes in on a header by Fletcher on a floating cross from Giggs. A few minutes later after Given made a nice save on a great scoring chance by Giggs, City drew level on a fantastic shot by Bellamy from just outside the area. The next 28 minutes United completely dominated getting several clear chances. Given made three big reaction saves stopping two Berbatov headers and a very powerful Giggs shot from the edge of the area. United finally broke through in the 80th minute on another header by Darren Fletcher putting in a cross from Giggs - this time off a set piece. City didn't look like equalizing until the 89th minute when Rio Ferdinand played an absolutely terrible ball right to Ireland (I think, couldn't quite tell) who played it through to Bellamy who sprinted past Ferdinand and slotted it home behind Foster. Deep into stoppage time (some would argue too deep, see below) after a free kick was cleared, Giggs spotted substitute Michael Owen open in the box. Owen put it away and sealed the 4-3 win for United.

Initial Impressions

As I mainly follow the Spanish league, I don't usually watch a lot of Premier League games. I suspect that will change due to writing this blog. When I do, I'm always impressed with the atmosphere and this match was no exception. In Spain the singing and chanting is mostly done by the home-side's ultras, whereas it seems to be everyone in England. Another common thought I have when watching English matches is how much more direct the style of play is compared to Spain. As for the match itself, I thought both teams made a lot more mistakes than I had expected. All four of United's goals featured awful defending by City. Evra was allowed to just run into the area unmarked on a throw in, Fletcher twice wasn't properly marked nor was a defender in good position to clear the cross and Owen was left alone in goal with two defenders 5 yards away from him ball watching. City's first goal came as a result of a goalkeeper mistake that should not happen even at the youth level. Foster tried to dribble the ball into the area to pick it up when he clearly should have just banged it out. When Tevez is on the other team you can't mess around back there because the guy doesn't stop chasing the ball. The second goal for City was the only one of the match that didn't result from a bad play by the other team. City's third goal came as a result of Ferdinand giving away the ball and then failing to chase down Bellamy. As I said in preview, I think these teams are both good defensively. United last year were in my view the best in the world defensively. It was pretty shocking to see that kind of display.

On the positive side, it's clear that both sides are very good. I have a lot of respect for Rooney and Tevez. I can't think of two harder-working attacking players. I think City will be a lot better once Adebayor comes back and they can play Tevez in a deeper role. Bellamy obviously had a great game as well. For United, I thought Evra was particularly strong down the left. He also pressured Tevez late in the half and I'm sure played a role in his shot going into the bar instead of the goal. To be honest I didn't think Giggs was all that good in the match but he played a huge part in the last three United goals with two crosses that were headed in and then picking out Owen for the last goal. If I had to choose a man of the match it might be Shay Given. It's strange to give it to a goalkeeper when his side gives up 4 goals but I don't think you can say any were his fault and he kept his team in the match during the second half which United otherwise dominated. Obviously Fletcher is the easy choice with two goals in his team's win.

As far as the referee goes, I think he did a good job overall. Other than the timing controversy at the end, he was under the radar, which is what you're looking for. Something that needs mentioning is that the assistant referee should have signaled that Berbatov was offside on a great scoring chance in the first half. Berbatov put it over but was in great position and would have scored if he'd put it almost anywhere on target. The replay showed that he was well offside. Since it was a set piece, it should have been an easy call. It's the sort of thing that isn't considered a big deal because the ball didn't go in, but not getting that call right is terrible because a goal is scored in that situation frequently. We shouldn't give him a pass because Berbatov missed the header.

That brings us to the controversy. In the 89th or 90th minute the fourth referee signaled four minutes. Michael Owen's goal came a full five and a half minutes into stoppage time. Here's a rundown of what happened in the last stages:
90:00 - Bellamy scores for Man City
92:00 - Carrick is subbed on for Anderson
94:45 - a United player is fouled about 7 yards on the United attacking side of the center line
95:13 - Rooney takes a free kick
95:15 - it is cleared by Stephen Ireland between the penalty area and the 10-yard arc for penalty kicks
95:17 - it is headed further by a City player which I think is Tevez. Given the grass patterns he appears to be 36 yards out.
95:19 - Rooney sends it back into the area
95:22 - the ball is headed out by a City defender just outside the area, it goes to Giggs roughly 33 yards out
95:23 - Giggs plays the ball to Owen who is open in the area
95:27 - Owen scores

The amount of stoppage time to be added is at the sole discretion of the referee. In my view he should have added an extra minute to stoppage time as a result of the goal and substitution. I also think he should have extended the match to allow United to take the free kick as Rooney did at 95:13. I think that is pretty standard and most referees would have done the same. I do think he should have ended the match once that free kick was cleared, and I think it would be called there most of the time by other referees. If not there then the second clearance at 95:22 would have been the standard place to whistle it dead. Obviously everything would be different with a different referee, but I think well over half the time a random ref would have ended the match before the last goal.

Having said that, I don't think it was completely outrageous. As I said, it's up to the referees discretion. There are differences when it comes to how much time individual refs add. Also important is that it could have been the case that he had wanted to add something closer to four and a half minutes than four originally. There's nothing in the rules saying that an integer number of minutes must be added, but they do only display whole numbers on the board. If that's the case, then you can throw out everything I said above because the extra goal and substitution would push stoppage time up to 95:30 instead of 95:00. I am a traditionalist and would like for the timing of the match to remain as it is now, but controversies like this are the downside of having this timing system instead of something like what is used in basketball.

Weekend Preview: Manchester Derby

The biggest match of the weekend in my view is Manchester United versus Manchester City at Old Trafford on Sunday. The match kicks off at 1:30 in the afternoon locally, that's 14:30 for most of continental Europe, 8:30 in the morning for those on the East coast of the United States and bright (or still dark perhaps) and early at 5:30 in the morning for those of us on the left coast. Unfortunately if you're in the United States it's only available on Setanta so it may be a good idea to hit up a pub for breakfast.

Because the season is so young, much of my preview of the match is based on last year.

Home and Away

Old Trafford was good to United last year. They were the best club in the Premiership at home and "only" third best on the road. While they actually conceded two more goals at home compared to the road on the whole season, they scored 18 more, nearly one more per match, in front of the home crowd. City last year were the club with the biggest difference between home and away results. They were the third best team at home and 17th best on the road. If there was something to that other than just variance and it carries over to this year, it points to Manchester United starting out with an edge based solely on the location of the match.

Recent Form

At this point form is just all results so far.
United: WLWWW
City: WWWW

Both teams are doing pretty well. The only blemish was a surprising 1-0 defeat by United at newly-promoted Burnley. Cup competitions gone similarly - City won 0-2 at Crystal Palace in the league cup while United won 0-1 against Besiktas in the Champions League. Nothing surprising here.

Something important for this match is that Adebayor will not play. He was given a three match ban for stomping on van Persie and his provocative goal celebration where he ran the length of the pitch kneel in celebration in front of the Arsenal supporters.

Scoring and Conceding

Last season Manchester United were tied with Chelsea as best defensive team and second best scoring team, 9 goals behind Liverpool. Manchester City were in the middle of the pack defensively and scored the fifth most goals. City scored 10 fewer goals for the season, 0.26 per game, and allowed 26 more goals, 0.68 per match. In short, Manchester United were incredibly good defensively, the best in Europe in my opinion, and very good at scoring while City were good offensively but mediocre defensively.

Last summer there were a lot of changes at both clubs. Cristiano Ronaldo moved from Manchester United to Real Madrid. It's very tough to replace a player of his quality and they didn't do so by bringing in another big name. Sir Alex Ferguson added
Michael Owen for free, paid out 18 million euros for winger Antonio Valencia and picked up promising 20-year old winger Gabriel Obertan for 3.5 million. City were a lot more busy. They brought in three defenders, Sylvinho, Lescott and Toure, midfielder Barry and three attacking players in Adebayor, Tevez and Roque Santa Cruz. As far as Man City goes, I think the situation is similar to what I wrote about Real Madrid. Bringing in Tevez and Adebayor was huge and got all the attention, but Toure, Lescott and Barry will be the signings that make a difference if City are to compete for the league and finish in a Champions League spot.

Looking at the short season thus far, the two teams are the best defensive teams in the league. The poisson model puts United best and City second best. In scoring, I have Manchester United fifth best and City 8th. Take those figures with a grain of salt as the sample sizes are ridiculously small and an extra goal here or there would make a huge difference at this point. Based on last year's results, this year's results so far, and the summer transfers I'd say that both teams should be near the top both offensively and defensively.

Predictions

As I said, I'm not sure this prediction is reliable given how few matches have been played. The Poisson model predicts a low-scoring affair with 0-0 the most likely scoreline. It gives United a 39% chance to win, City a 21% shot and predicts a draw 40% of the time.

I'll predict 1-0 to Manchester United.