FIFA Announces Pots for Draw

FIFA has announced the pots for the World Cup draw, with one major surprise. Instead of using the same type of formula they used last time, which I used in a past article to calculate the 7 seeded teams along with South Africa, they just used the FIFA rankings from last month. This meant that France dropped out and the Netherlands became seeded. That's a pretty big break from tradition as they've used roughly the same seeding formula for the last handful of World Cups.

Here are the pots:

Seeded:
Argentina
Brazil
England
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
South Africa
Spain

Pot 2:
Australia
Japan
North Korea
South Korea
New Zealand
Honduras
Mexico
United States

Pot 3:
Algeria
Cameroon
Côte d’Ivoir
Ghana
Nigeria
Chile
Paraguay
Uruguay

Pot 4:
Denmark
France
Greece
Portugal
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Switzerland

Here are a few thoughts:
- The second pot contains no teams from the same confederation as the seeded pot. This means that for those teams, each of the seeded teams are equally likely.

- If you are like most people and think that South Africa is by far the easiest draw from the seeded pot then the unseeded South American sides have an edge because each has a 1 in 3 chance of playing in South Africa's group. This point and the last one are because no two teams from the same confederation other than UEFA can be put into the same group.

- If you're French or a fan you obviously aren't happy. If you are Dutch then I'm sure you are. For the rest of the world, the only change as far as the seeding goes is that France replaced the Netherlands as the big team you'd like to avoid. In my view, and probably that of most others, France, Portugal and the Ivory Coast are clearly the best three teams that aren't seeded. I think it's a lock that one of those three will be in what is considered the group of death.

- The United States and Mexico are also very likely to be in the group of death. Keep in mind that this doesn't mean the draw will be tougher. The US and Honduras have the exact same probability of drawing any given set of opponents, but because the US and Mexico are the best two teams in their pot they are likely to be in the group of death.

- Perhaps because of South Africa or maybe just some kind of recency bias, it seems like there is more on the line in terms of how tough the groups could be. A possible group is Brazil, the United States, Ivory Coast and France. Another is South Africa, North Korea, Uruguay and Slovenia. For countries like the US, Denmark, Chile and Ghana there are possible groups where it would be very unlikely to get out, maybe a 10% chance, and others where it would be a near certainty.

UEFA Playoff Seeding

With much controversy, two weeks ago FIFA announced that the draw for the playoff round for UEFA would be seeded according to the FIFA ranking this month. This is quite beneficial to the countries with a high ranking and bad for those that are ranked lower.

Here is a list of teams that could be in the playoff round, by FIFA ranking. I'm eliminating those that need crazy scenarios to make it. Teams in bold are certainly in, FIFA ranking within UEFA in parenthesis.
Russia (5)
Croatia (7)
France (8)
Greece (9)
Switzerland (11)
Portugal (13)
Israel (16)
Ukraine (17)
Republic of Ireland (23)
Sweden (24)
Slovakia (26)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (27)
Slovenia (29)

Switzerland, Greece and Israel are in the same group. Croatia aren't very likely to make it, they would need for Andorra to get a result against the Ukraine. Similarly, Portugal are in with a win over Malta so they likely will make it. This makes the pots likely to be:

Seeded:
Russia, France, Greece/Switzerland/Israel, Portugal

Unseeded:
Ukraine, Ireland, Slovakia/Slovenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina

If Croatia manage to qualify then they would be seeded. Portugal would be the odd team out if either Greece or Switzerland make the playoff, Israel would be if they make it. Ukraine need for Portugal to fail to qualify for a seed. That's all assuming that the rankings don't change. Even then the only way the seeding could change barring a massive shift in the rankings, which I don't see a reason for, would be for the Ukraine to jump ahead of Portugal. Right now the Ukraine are 22nd overall and Portugal 17th with Ukraine 36 points behind. Teams do have shifts that high so it's possible.

2010 World Cup Seeding, Summary Version

Note: This article was written with the assumption that FIFA would use a formula similar to the one they had used for the previous 3 or 4 World Cups. They instead went purely off of the October FIFA rankings making all of this incorrect. Here is a recent article on the draw setup.

I tend to write too much so as a service I'll at times have a summary article for those that just want the damn point instead of reading through all the methodology stuff. Here is the original article. Read it if you want the methodology.

Being seeded is a big edge because it means your opponents are not as strong.

The following teams will definitely be seeded:
1. South Africa
2. Brazil
3. Italy
4. Spain
5. England

The last three spots go in this order:
1. Germany
2. Argentina
3. France
4. Portugal
5. The Netherlands
6. Mexico
7. The United States

So Germany, Argentina and France will all be seeded if they qualify. Portugal will be seeded if they qualify and one of those teams slips up. The Netherlands need for two of those teams, including Portugal, to fail to qualify in order to be seeded. Mexico need for three of Germany, Argentina, France and Portugal to not make it to South Africa and the United States need for all four of those teams to fail to qualify.

2010 World Cup seeding

Note: This article was written with the assumption that FIFA would use a formula similar to the one they had used for the previous 3 or 4 World Cups. They instead went purely off of the October FIFA rankings making all of this incorrect. Here is a recent article on the draw setup.

This December they'll have the draw, where the groups for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa will be decided. The teams are separated into 4 different pods and each group consists of one team from each pod. Three of the pods are done geographically so that teams from the same confederation are in the same pod. The other pod contains all the seeded teams.

The idea behind seeding is to ensure that there is some semblance of balance in the groups. Nobody would want to see Brazil, Spain, Italy and South Korea all in the same group. Well, I guess some would but it would clearly be bad for the tournament. So the goal of the seeding process is to put the host plus the 7 other best teams into the same pod. The difference between being a seeded team and not is often the difference between almost sure passage into the round of 16 and being put into the group of death. If you are seeded then you are not going to face a top team and likely will have only one above-average opponent in your group.

Determining the 7 best teams is certainly no easy task and there is always controversy when some teams feel that they should be included. To determine the 7 seeded teams, FIFA goes by a formula. This formula has two parts - one uses results from the last two (it used to be three) World Cups and the other uses the FIFA rankings.

Previous World Cup Results

The first part of the formula is based on the results of the last two World Cups, or at least it was for Germany '06. For Korea/Japan and before they used the previous three.

For each World Cup, the teams are ranked from 1-32. The first four spots go to the champion, runner up, third-place match winner and its loser. 5-8 are the teams that got eliminated in the quarterfinal round. These are sorted based on overall performance which I understand to mean that they go by points in the group stage and break ties by overall goal differential and goals scored. Teams 9-16 are the similarly sorted losers of the first knockout round. 17-24 are the teams that finished third in their group and 25-32 are the teams that finished last. Once the teams have been ranked in this manner, they are given points in reverse - 32 for first, 31 for second and so on down to 17 for the team placing 16th. For those teams eliminated in the group stage, the third-place finishers all get 9 points and those finishing fourth get 8.

In other words, you get 8 points for finishing last in your group, 9 points for finishing third, 17 for being 16th best and then 1 additional point for every spot higher up. In case you're still with me, the number of World Cup points each team gets is the weighted average of these points putting 2/3 weight on 2006 and 1/3 on 2002.

For example, Italy won the last World Cup and were eliminated in the first knockout round in South Korea. As it turns out, they were 15th overall for the 2002 World Cup according to the above method so they get 32 points for 2006 and 18 points for 2002. Their total World Cup points for seeding purposes is 32(2/3) + 18(1/3) = 27.33

FIFA World Rankings

For the next part, they take all 32 teams and look at their FIFA rankings from December 2007, December 2008 and November this year. For each year they give 32 to highest-ranked team (currently Brazil) down to 1 for the lowest ranked team (probably Bahrain if they qualify). The number of world ranking points each team gets is just the average of the three rankings.

Unlike the World Cup points, it isn't possible at this point to determine how many world ranking points each team will get. For one, it will be based on the rankings from this November. More importantly though, because it uses the Borda count method, teams' scores will change based on which teams qualify. It is possible, though to compare teams as I'll explain below.

Figuring Out the Seeded Teams

To determine where teams would be ranked for seeding purposes, I first got a rough idea where they would be based on the FIFA world rankings. To do that I gave points out assuming the top 32 each year were the 32 teams in the World Cup. That's a bad assumption, but again it's just to get a rough idea what the top teams are, that's not what I'm using to get the final results.

Here were the results of that:


Teams in green are now in and the teams in blue are very likely to qualify without needing a playoff.

Based on that chart, it's pretty clear that Brazil, Italy, Spain and England will be seeded along with Germany if they qualify. Below that Argentina, France, Portugal and the Netherlands are bunched up so I'll have to sort through those individually. Also, Croatia, Mexico, the United States and possibly the Ukraine, Paraguay and Sweden should be looked at. Once the worst of Mexico and the United States have been sorted we can stop because there would be 7 teams that have qualified or very likely will.

To compare each pair, I looked at how many teams are between them in the rankings that have been or could be eliminated from the competition in qualifying. To see how this works, let's go through Argentina and France. Looking at the table above, France stand a point behind in the standings, mainly because they have a worse rank score. Here are the relevant rankings, using today to represent the November rankings:
2007
Argentina - 1
France - 7

2008
Argentina - 6
France - 11

2009
Argentina - 8
France - 10

A useful thing is that if we eliminate teams from these rankings because they didn't qualify, that will only help the lower-ranked team compared to the chart. In other words, eliminating teams above both France and Argentina doesn't matter, but eliminating teams in between them helps France. How much? It would move them up 1 point for that year, but because they are averaged, each team eliminated gains the lower-ranked team a third of a point.

Using this method, I can't say what the final numbers will be, but I can compare teams and give a ranking. Unless the final FIFA rankings change drastically I can therefore say which teams will be seeded.

For France and Argentina, the teams between them in the rankings are Brazil, Italy, Spain, Germany, the Czech Republic for the first year Croatia, England, Russia and Turkey for the second year and currently Croatia is the only team between them. They need to knock out three teams. It's likely that the Czech Republic and Turkey are gone but Russia and Croatia (counted twice) are currently looking at a playoff spot. If either of those are eliminated or if France leap frogs Argentina in the final rankings then Les Bleus will be ahead of them. It doesn't actually turn out to matter because if both make it then both will be seeded. For now let's say Argentina rate higher as that will make things easier.

Next let's compare France and Portugal. This one is immediate. France has more World Cup points and is ranked above Portugal in every ranking so they will be seeded ahead of the Portuguese if both make it. Moving on to Portugal and the Netherlands, Portugal have more World Cup points and the Netherlands are more highly ranked every year. Because eliminating teams can only help Portugal, they rate above the Netherlands for seeding purposes. The Netherlands will rate above Croatia because they have more World Cup points and are ranked higher. Mexico and Croatia is the first place where the rankings switch. Mexico need to eliminate just two teams that are ranked in between them and the Croats and that's sure to happen. As a result, it becomes necessary to compare the Netherlands and Mexico. With the Netherlands 11.67 points ahead on the chart, Mexico would need to have 35 teams ranked between them on the three rankings not make the finals. Just glancing at them, I don't think that will happen but it I suppose it is possible.

So now we have a list that looks like this:
Germany
Argentina
France
Portugal
Netherlands
Mexico

To continue, we need to look at Croatia and the United States. The US needs to gain 1.33 points, or eliminate 5 teams that ranked between them to jump over Croatia. That will happen, so the United States will be seeded before Croatia if it comes to that.

This brings us to Mexico and the United States. This is like Portugal and the Netherlands above. Mexico have more World Cup points and are ranked lower than the US every year, so eliminating teams will only help them. I hate to be the bearer of bad news for my American readers but for seeding purposes Mexico once again will rank ahead of the United States.

Looking down the chart, Sweden or the Ukraine could also pass the United States depending on which teams make it. I don't think that's likely, but it could happen so it's worth mentioning.

So What Teams Will Be Seeded?

These teams definitely will be seeded:
1. South Africa as hosts
2. Italy
3. Spain
4. Brazil
5. England

The last three spots will be given out in this order based on which teams qualify:
1. Germany
2. Argentina
3. France (possibly flip these)
4. Portugal
5. The Netherlands
6. Mexico
7. United States

So for the Netherlands, Mexico and the United States it comes down to how many of Germany, Argentina, France and Portugal fail to qualify. The US need all of them to fail, for Mexico only one can make it through and the Netherlands will be seeded if at most two of them qualify. Moving up the ladder, if Portugal qualify then they will be seeded if at least one of Germany, Argentina and France are out. Germany, Argentina and France will all be seeded if they make the trip to South Africa.