UEFA Playoff Mini-Preview

The draw took place earlier today. The matchups are:
Ireland - France
Portugal - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Greece - Ukraine
Russia - Slovenia

The playoffs will take place November 14th and 18th. The team listed first plays at home first.

I actually had the teams pretty similarly ranked to the FIFA rankings. From best to worst I had it: France, Portugal, Russia, Greece, Ukraine, Slovenia, Ireland and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnia are an interesting case as they rate the best at scoring but are by far the worst defensively. Russia are the best defensively and I was surprised to see them 6th out of these 8 teams when it comes to scoring. Given the rankings, you could say that Portugal and Ukraine were fortunate while Greece and Ireland were the most unlucky. These rankings and the predictions below are all based on matches from both qualifying and the finals of Euro 2008 and the qualifying matches for this world cup.

Predictions

I had to add a bit to the PLM, which I'll write more about later today or tomorrow, in order to get predictions because of the format. The playoff round is played out like the Champions League knockout round. Each team plays a home game, the scores are added together and if a team is ahead at that point they go through. If the two teams have the same number of goals then the team with the most away goals advances (no idea why they say they count double as that's confusing). If the scores in each leg are the same, so the teams are tied with the same number of away goals, then they go to extra time and penalties. The away-goals rule counts in extra time as well so if both teams score a goal then the away team that leg goes through.

A caveat about these predictions. They assume that in the case of extra time and penalties each team is equally likely to win. That's probably not realistic as it seems like the home team in the second leg is more likely to win in those situations. I went with a coin flip because I'm not sure what assumption to make. That's something I'll get into later before I do the full previews for these playoffs. Therefore, you should probably slightly (probably half a percent or so) adjust things to the second team. Also keep in mind that injuries are not taken into account.

Ireland - France:
Ireland: 38.9%
France: 61.1%

Portugal - Bosnia-Herzegovina:
Portugal: 70.5%
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 29.5%

Greece - Ukraine:
Greece: 55.1%
Ukraine: 44.9%

Russia - Slovenia:
Russia: 58.4%
Slovenia: 41.6%

I'm surprised how close a lot of these are to be honest. It shows how much variance there is in a two-legged tie.

UEFA - Final Matchday Preview

I meant to get this out sooner but yesterday had car trouble and today had to scramble to get a battery as the old one had died.

To be honest, tonight doesn't look to be very exciting in Europe. The way the schedules worked out, with one exception every important match is a team in contention playing a team that is eliminated, effectively if not mathematically. The only exception is Switzerland - Israel.

Here I will only discuss the groups that have something at stake.

1.
Portugal - Malta
Sweden - Albania
Denmark - Hungary

Portugal are in the playoff with a win. If they somehow don't win then Sweden are in if they win. Hungary have a mathematical chance but would need to crush Denmark and have Malta crush Portugal. Portugal should have an easy win.

(correct!) PLM Probabilities:
1st: Denmark 100%
2nd: Portugal 95.88%, Sweden 4.12%

2.
Switzerland - Israel
Greece - Luxembourg
Latvia - Moldova

Switzerland clinch the group with a result against Israel. Greece guarantee themselves at least a playoff with a win. Israel could still make the playoff with a win and a Greece draw or loss. Latvia are still technically in it but they would need to win, have Greece lose, have Isreal draw or lose and have their scoring margin and Luxembourg's over Greece add up to at least 7.

PLM Predictions:
1st: Switzerland 78.91%, Greece 21.09%
2nd: Greece 77.04%, Switzerland 21.09%, Israel 1.86%, Latvia 0.01% (1 out of 10,000 simulations)

3.
San Marino - Slovenia
Poland - Slovakia
Czech Republic - Northern Ireland

Assuming Slovenia beat perhaps the worst national team in the world, Slovakia will need a win in Poland to secure the group, otherwise it's the playoff for the Slovaks. I don't expect motivation to be an issue for Poland because they are playing at home. The Czechs are in with a win if San Marino can pull off a miracle and get a point against Slovenia.

PLM Predictions:
1st: Slovenia 70.45%, Slovakia 29.55%
2nd: Slovakia 70.45%, Slovenia 25.66%, Czech Republic 3.89%

6.
Andorra - Ukraine
Kazakhstan - Croatia

See Portugal and Sweden above. If Ukraine win then they are in the playoff, if Croatia win and Ukraine fail then Croatia go instead. Ukraine should win but stranger things have happened.

PLM Predictions:
1st: England 100%
2nd: Ukraine 91.48%, Croatia 8.52%

UEFA Playoff Seeding

With much controversy, two weeks ago FIFA announced that the draw for the playoff round for UEFA would be seeded according to the FIFA ranking this month. This is quite beneficial to the countries with a high ranking and bad for those that are ranked lower.

Here is a list of teams that could be in the playoff round, by FIFA ranking. I'm eliminating those that need crazy scenarios to make it. Teams in bold are certainly in, FIFA ranking within UEFA in parenthesis.
Russia (5)
Croatia (7)
France (8)
Greece (9)
Switzerland (11)
Portugal (13)
Israel (16)
Ukraine (17)
Republic of Ireland (23)
Sweden (24)
Slovakia (26)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (27)
Slovenia (29)

Switzerland, Greece and Israel are in the same group. Croatia aren't very likely to make it, they would need for Andorra to get a result against the Ukraine. Similarly, Portugal are in with a win over Malta so they likely will make it. This makes the pots likely to be:

Seeded:
Russia, France, Greece/Switzerland/Israel, Portugal

Unseeded:
Ukraine, Ireland, Slovakia/Slovenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina

If Croatia manage to qualify then they would be seeded. Portugal would be the odd team out if either Greece or Switzerland make the playoff, Israel would be if they make it. Ukraine need for Portugal to fail to qualify for a seed. That's all assuming that the rankings don't change. Even then the only way the seeding could change barring a massive shift in the rankings, which I don't see a reason for, would be for the Ukraine to jump ahead of Portugal. Right now the Ukraine are 22nd overall and Portugal 17th with Ukraine 36 points behind. Teams do have shifts that high so it's possible.

UEFA - Post-Matchday 9 Update

I'll go more into detail on the groups where there is something to play for in the next couple days. Here is the current situation:

Already Qualified:
Denmark
England
Germany
Italy
The Netherlands
Serbia
Spain

Could Go Automatically, Guaranteed at Least Playoff Round
Slovakia
Switzerland

Certainly in Playoff Round:
Bosnia-Herzegovina
France
Republic of Ireland
Russia

Groups 4,5,7 and 8 are completely done. Group 9 has finished playing. Here is the situation in the other groups:

1. Denmark are in. Portugal make the playoff round with a win over Malta at home. Sweden can still make it if Portugal fail to win and Sweden get the win versus Albania.

2. Switzerland are in with any result at home against Israel. If they lose and Greece win versus Luxembourg then the Greeks win the group. Greece are guaranteed at least second if they win or Israel fail to win. If Greece draw or lose and Israel win then Switzerland finish first in the group, getting a spot in South Africa, and Israel finish second and go to the playoff round.

3. Slovakia at least have the playoff round locked up. They qualify automatically if they win in Poland or Slovenia fail to win in San Marino. If Slovakia draw or lose and Slovenia win then Slovenia qualify automatically and Slovakia go to the playoff. The Czech Republic and Northern Ireland are technically still alive, but effectively out. The Czechs make the playoff with a win at home over Northern Ireland and anything less than a win for Slovenia. Northern Ireland get in with a win and a loss by Slovenia where the sum of victory margins is more than 7, for example San Marino 3 - 0 Slovenia and Czech Republic 0 - 5 Northern Ireland.

6. As a result of their win today, the Ukraine make the playoff round with a win at Andorra. If they get a draw or lose then Croatia can make the playoff with a win at Kazakhstan. In the unlikely scenario where the Ukraine lose to Andorra and Croatia get a draw then the Ukraine would make the playoff as long as they lose by 3 or fewer goals.

Norway's chances are slim to say the least. The only scenario where they could make the playoff round is if Sweden draw against Albania and Portugal lose by 4 or more goals to Malta. To cover all bases, they would also make it if Portugal lose by exactly 3 goals and Sweden get a draw where they score 5 or more goals than Portugal. Finally, it goes to the drawing of lots or a playoff game (for the playoff round) if Portugal lose by 3 goals and Sweden get a draw where they score 4 more goals than Portugal, so Norway could get in if all that happens and Sweden win the random draw or playoff game.

UEFA Group 4: Russia - Germany Preview

I may be overreacting to Euro 2008, but Russia - Germany is likely to be the best match in all of qualifying. We're getting a possible final in the qualifying round. While neither would be a favorite, I think both teams are in the second tier of countries that have an outside shot at winning the World Cup.

The Situation

Germany currently sit one point ahead of Russia. Both teams are expected to win their last match. Germany host Finland while Russia travel to Azerbaijan. Assuming they both get the win Wednesday Saturday's match will decide the group. If Russia win then they win the group and qualify automatically. If Germany get a result then they win the group. Both teams are guaranteed a playoff spot even if they lose their last two matches.

History

History is on Germany's side. Russia, as Russia or the USSR, have never beaten Germany or West Germany in a competitive match. I personally think that means nothing as it relates to how this match will turn out, but it is an interesting anecdote given the nonfootball history of the countries. More relevantly, Germany are up a point because they beat the Russians 2-1 in Dortmund a year ago. Here are links to the goals from that match: Podolski Ballack Arshavin. (Sidenote: what's up with the shhh celebration when you score to put your team down a goal?). In that match, Germany dominated the first half, going into the break up 2-0. While Russia were the better side in the second, it wasn't enough to overcome their deficit.

The Ground

A big story related to the match is that it will be played on artificial turf in Moscow at Luzhniki Stadium. That should help the Russians because they will be, at least in theory, more accustomed to the surface plus they play more of a short passing game. I personally think that artificial turf should not be allowed, but maybe it is cheaper so some smaller countries have to go with it. Russia is not such a country and it seems bizarre that they are playing on an artificial surface. I suppose it could have something to do with the snowy and icy conditions in the Russian winter but the forecast for Moscow is for above freezing temperatures.

Injuries

For Russia, there seem to be no injuries that will keep a player out of the match. The biggest injury story is Andei Arshavin, who has been battling a knee injury. Based on his recent performances for Arsenal, including a goal in the 6-2 thrashing of Blackburn last weekend, I'd say the knee is fine.

Germany are less lucky. They will not have the services of starting goalkeeper Robert Enke who is sick. René Adler is expected to replace him. Adler has little experience at this level, though he did play in the previous match against Russia and recorded clean sheets in qualifiers against Wales and Azerbaijan. Given the intensity of the match and the likelihood of plenty of chances for Russia, it'll be interesting to see how the young keeper handles the pressure.

Predictions

I'll mix it up and give my personal thoughts before going with the objective predictions of my current best model. Russia is a very good attacking team that plays a pretty aggressive style to begin with. They have now mathematically locked up second place can count on a German win Wednesday over Finland so they a draw does them no good compared to a loss. This will cause them to push even harder to score. Germany are solid at both ends of the pitch so I expect the match to be extremely entertaining with plenty of chances for both teams. For a scoreline prediction, I'll say that Russia win 2-1.

The PLM predicts a lower-scoring, less-exciting affair. Again the usual caveat applies. The model just uses results, it does not include differences in motivation and incentives compared to previous matches. As I argued above, Russia get little from a draw and a lot from a win so they should be more attack oriented than they have been in previous matches. With that said, the model predicts a 36.5% chance of a win for Russia, 27.7% chance of a German win and a 35.8% probability of a draw. The most likely scorelines are 1-0 and 1-1, each with about a 15% likelihood. This goes in line with the overall prediction, which is Germany to go through top 74% of the time and Russia 26%.

I don't have strong feelings either way about either of these national teams, but Russia is in my opinion one of the most entertaining teams to watch play so I am hoping for a home win.

World Cup Qualification: UEFA Group 1 - Matchday 9

Current Situation

Denmark are top of the group with 18 points. Sweden trail with 15 followed by Portugal and Hungary with 13 each. Albania and Malta have been eliminated. In the first tiebreaker, goal differential, Denmark are +11, Sweden +6, Portugal +4 and Hungary +4.

Saturday Denmark host Sweden while Hungary travel to Portugal. Wednesday's matches are very important as well - Denmark play at home against Hungary while Sweden and Portugal host Albania and Malta respectively. We can expect Sweden and Portugal to win, probably big, Wednesday. It would not even be out of the question for Sweden to win by 5+ goals given the potential importance. Unlike some of my previous scenarios where I assumed high scorelines didn't happen, I don't think that can be done.

Here are the scenarios. They are pretty messy at this point, obviously it will become much more clear Saturday night.

Denmark will automatically qualify if one of these happens:
- they win against Sweden
- they draw against Sweden and get at least a draw against Hungary

They could also get in other ways with some help. If they draw against Sweden and lose to Hungary then they could finish top if their goal differential remains higher than Sweden and, if necessary, the winner of Portugal - Hungary. Same goes for a loss to Sweden and a win over Hungary - they would then only need to beat Sweden in the tiebreakers.

The Danes could actually be eliminated from the competition. That can happen only if Portugal - Hungary does not end in a draw. If that happens and Denmark lose both matches then they will be eliminated assuming Sweden and Portugal beat their weak opponents. It can also happen if Denmark get a draw and a loss, in either order, and lose the tiebreakers to Sweden and/or Portugal and/or Hungary.

Sweden can only make it automatically with help or by winning tiebreakers with Denmark. If they win Saturday then they can get in with a better result than Denmark get Wednesday or by winning the tiebreakers. Right now they are down 5 goals on goal differential, but they go to down 3 with a 1 goal win and down just 1 with a two-goal win Saturday. That plus the much weaker opponent Wednesday means it is far from impossible to catch Denmark in goal differential. A win Saturday plus a 5-goal win over Albania would likely be good enough for automatic qualification. The Swedes could also get in with a draw against Denmark and a Denmark loss Wednesday. Again, they would need to beat Albania by a large margin.

If Portugal-Hungary does not end in a draw then Sweden may need two wins or 4 points in their two matches plus winning the tiebreaker in order to make the playoff. Should Sweden get a draw and Portugal win Saturday we will have what I think is an unfortunate situation Wednesday where Sweden and Portugal will be trying to pile on as many goals and win by as much as possible trying to get the edge in the goal-differential and goals-scored tiebreakers. That possibility is certainly the downside of basing the first set of tiebreakers on results from the group as a whole instead of head-to-head results, though in this case it wouldn't matter because both matches between Portugal and Sweden were 0-0 draws.

Portugal need to win and get some help. They can still win the group with two wins but it's not likely. The most likely way for that to happen would be for Denmark - Sweden to end in a draw, for Hungary to win in Denmark next Wednesday and to win the tiebreaker over both Sweden and Denmark. Portugal's fate depends a lot on the Denmark - Sweden outcome. If Denmark win then Portugal would make the playoff round with two wins. If it's a draw then Portugal could get in with two wins, but would likely have to win the tiebreak with Sweden. In this scenario they would be going into Wednesday at least even on goal differential with more goals scored. If Sweden win then things are more complicated. Even with two wins they would need either for either Sweden or Denmark to get a draw or loss in their last match. In both cases the opponent would have nothing to play for. If you are Portuguese you should definitely be cheering for Denmark.

Hungary's situation is very similar to that of Portugal. It is slightly better if you just ask what happens if certain results happen - the Hungarians are at least in the playoff round with two wins if Sweden beat Denmark Saturday.


Group PLM Predictions

The PLM gives Denmark an 83.7% chance of winning the group, Sweden 11.8%, Portugal 3.4% and Hungary 1.1%. The most likely second-place team is Sweden according to the model. The Swedes have a 45.6% chance of finishing second and making the playoff, Portugal 33.1%, Denmark 11.5%, and Hungary 6.1%. Adding them up, Denmark have a 95.2% shot at either winning the group or reaching the playoff, Sweden 57.4%, Portugal 36.5% and Hungary 7.2%. This group has just under a 4% chance of having the worst second-place team.


Saturday's Matches

Denmark - Sweden (20:00 local, 2:00 PM Eastern United States)


First off, if you didn't follow Euro 2008 qualifying, you definitely want to check out what happened the last time these teams met in Copenhagen. The hotly contested match was 3-3 in the 88th minute when the referee awarded a Sweden penalty and sent off Christian Poulsen after talking to the linesman, who saw Poulsen strike a Sweden player in the midsection. A fan then ran onto the pitch in an apparent attempt to attack the referee, though he was stopped by a couple nearby Danish defenders. The four referees got together and decided to abandon the match. Here is a youtube link, here is the wikipedia page about the incident. I'm sure both of these sides would love to severely damage the other's qualification chances.

Form and Injuries

Form probably doesn't mean much given that these teams last played nearly a month ago. Sweden have won 3 matches in a row since losing 0-1 to Denmark in June. Denmark have two draws in their two matches. Their last match was particularly bad as it was a 1-1 draw at Albania. They could have all-but sealed a trip to South Africa with a win so the draw is certainly bad news.

For injuries, there is little to report. Daniel Agger has not played a match since playing in Sweden for Denmark due to a back injury. He was expected to play, but sat out training yesterday. It seems unlikely that he'll go 90 minutes if he does play.

PLM Predictions

The PLM predicts a match that is likely to be low-scoring. It gives Denmark a 48% chance to win, Sweden a 17% chance with a draw happening 35% of the time. The most likely scoreline according to the model is a 1-0 win for Denmark which will happen with 20% probability. I'm inclined to think that Denmark will struggle to keep Sweden from scoring, so I'll make a 1-1 draw my personal prediction.


Portugal - Hungary (19:45 local, 3:45 PM Eastern US)

The obvious place to start is with injuries, which unfortunately Portugal have a lot of. Cristiano Ronaldo missed the epic Sevilla win over Real Madrid because of an ankle injury suffered in the Champions League match against Olympique Marseille in the midweek. News reports indicate that he will be ready to play, but we shall see. By the way, he may be cursed and never play again. There are similar injured but should play reports for Bosingwa and Tiago. Despite his name, Duda is less doubtful and much more likely to both play and be closer to 100%.

I have been unable to find any sort of injury report for Hungary.

Predictions

The PLM predicts that the Portuguese should win. They are given a 70% chance, Hungary a 7% chance and the remaining 23% being the likelihood of a draw. The most likely outcome is 2-0 to Portugal. I personally think the model overrates the probability of a draw. The reason for that is that a draw serves neither team. If the score is even near the end I think we can expect to see a lot of attacking football from both sides. It is much more likely than usual for there to be a goal that breaks the deadlock. The injury situation for Portugal is certainly not good, even if they get all four players mentioned above to play. The model does not take that into account, and I think in particular overrates them offensively for that reason. I think these factors somewhat cancel out on the Portugal side so they are probably around that 70%. I'd guess Hungary are more like 20% to win, with about a 10% chance of a draw which would practically eliminate both teams. I'll make 1-0 Portugal my just-for-fun prediction.

A Mid-Day Qualification Update

Now that all European matches have been played as well as a couple in South America, here are updated odds for UEFA and CONMEBOL. I'll have a more detailed writeup for each later.

CONMEBOL

Results:
Colombia 2 - 0 Ecuador
Peru 1 - 0 Uruguay

Both results are great for Argentina and put the two losers in a tough spot. Brazil, Chile and Paraguay are still better than 99% to get in automatically. Because of those results, Argentina went from 53% to make the top 4 to 77%. Their match later today is still pretty big but it's been a good day so far. Uruguay's chances are now down to just 26% overall, as usual assuming the playoff would be 50/50 if they get there. Ecuador losing as well somewhat negated the pain of their loss. Ecuador nearly cut their chances in half - they are down to 11% overall to qualify.

UEFA

Group 1
Results:
Denmark 1 - 1 Portugal
Hungary 1 - 2 Sweden

Sweden now have a 49% chance at second place and the playoff. Portugal actually slightly improved their chances and now have a 39% probability of finishing in second with enough points. Hungary is significantly worse off - they now have just a 4% shot at the playoff.

Group 2
Results:
Moldova 0 - 0 Luxembourg
Israel 0 - 1 Latvia
Switzerland 2 - 0 Greece

Switzerland are now favorites to go through top with a 65% chance. They also have a 29% chance of finishing in second and making the playoff. Greece have fallen to 29% to go through automatically and 53% to make the playoff. Latvia are still in it but have just a 7% shot at winning the group and 16% of making the playoff round.

Group 3
Results:
Poland 1 - 1 Northern Ireland
Slovakia 2 - 2 Czech Republic

The results were good for Slovakia. They are now at 64% to finish in first and 15% to make the playoff round in second. Northern Ireland are in a similar spot to where they were yesterday - 12% to win the group and 26% to finish second and make the playoff. Slovenia improved their chances and are now at 12% to win the group and 16% for second. Poland and the Czech Republic are now in worse shape. Poland have a 7% chance to win the group and 15% of getting into the playoff round and the Czech Republic 5% and 19%.

Group 4
Results:
Azerbaijan 1 - 2 Finland
Russia 3 - 0 Liechtenstein

Nothing changed. Russia won as expected so it still comes down to them and Germany for first and second.

Group 5
Results:
Armenia 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina
Turkey 4 - 2 Estonia
Spain 5 - 0 Belgium

Bosnia-Herzegovina's chances went up a bit and Turkey's down. B-H are now at 71% to make the playoff round and Turkey 28%.

Group 6
Results:
Ukraine 5 - 0 Andorra
Croatia 1 - 0 Belarus

Croatia's chances went down slightly and Ukraine's up. The 5 goals may be huge for Ukraine. Croatia are now at 69% and Ukraine 30% to make the playoff round.

Group 7
Results:
Austria 3 - 1 Faroe Islands
France 1 - 1 Romania

France's chances for first took a bit of a hit, but most of that went on to their playoff equity. They are now at 30% to win the group and 67% for good-enough second. Serbia are now up to 70% to win the group and 30% to qualify for the playoff round.

Group 8
Results:
Bulgaria 4 - 1 Montenegro
Georgia 0 - 2 Italy
Cyprus 1 - 2 Republic of Ireland

Nothing changed here. Italy and Ireland both got the wins they were supposed to.

Group 9
Results:
Scotland 2 - 0 Macedonia
Iceland 1 - 1 Norway

Norway's chances took a major blow. They were the most likely team to get second but are now down to just having a 5% chance at making the playoff to go with the 36% probability of finishing second but being eliminated anyway. Scotland's chances have gone up to 15% for second and in the playoff. Macedonia are now pretty much eliminated.