Saturday, October 10, 2009

UEFA - Post-Matchday 9 Update

I'll go more into detail on the groups where there is something to play for in the next couple days. Here is the current situation:

Already Qualified:
The Netherlands

Could Go Automatically, Guaranteed at Least Playoff Round

Certainly in Playoff Round:
Republic of Ireland

Groups 4,5,7 and 8 are completely done. Group 9 has finished playing. Here is the situation in the other groups:

1. Denmark are in. Portugal make the playoff round with a win over Malta at home. Sweden can still make it if Portugal fail to win and Sweden get the win versus Albania.

2. Switzerland are in with any result at home against Israel. If they lose and Greece win versus Luxembourg then the Greeks win the group. Greece are guaranteed at least second if they win or Israel fail to win. If Greece draw or lose and Israel win then Switzerland finish first in the group, getting a spot in South Africa, and Israel finish second and go to the playoff round.

3. Slovakia at least have the playoff round locked up. They qualify automatically if they win in Poland or Slovenia fail to win in San Marino. If Slovakia draw or lose and Slovenia win then Slovenia qualify automatically and Slovakia go to the playoff. The Czech Republic and Northern Ireland are technically still alive, but effectively out. The Czechs make the playoff with a win at home over Northern Ireland and anything less than a win for Slovenia. Northern Ireland get in with a win and a loss by Slovenia where the sum of victory margins is more than 7, for example San Marino 3 - 0 Slovenia and Czech Republic 0 - 5 Northern Ireland.

6. As a result of their win today, the Ukraine make the playoff round with a win at Andorra. If they get a draw or lose then Croatia can make the playoff with a win at Kazakhstan. In the unlikely scenario where the Ukraine lose to Andorra and Croatia get a draw then the Ukraine would make the playoff as long as they lose by 3 or fewer goals.

Norway's chances are slim to say the least. The only scenario where they could make the playoff round is if Sweden draw against Albania and Portugal lose by 4 or more goals to Malta. To cover all bases, they would also make it if Portugal lose by exactly 3 goals and Sweden get a draw where they score 5 or more goals than Portugal. Finally, it goes to the drawing of lots or a playoff game (for the playoff round) if Portugal lose by 3 goals and Sweden get a draw where they score 4 more goals than Portugal, so Norway could get in if all that happens and Sweden win the random draw or playoff game.

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