Friday, October 2, 2009

Weekend Preview: Sevilla - Real Madrid

This week there are three big matches, all on Sunday. I'll start with my favorite, Sevilla - Real Madrid. Later today or possibly tomorrow I'll cover the Old Firm and Chelsea - Liverpool. Sevilla - Real Madrid kicks off at 21:00 local time, which is 3:00 PM on the East coast of the US. In the United States you can see the match on GolTV.

Recent History

Sevilla spent the 2000-2001 season in the Segunda, but have since been in the Primera. Since they have actually gotten pretty good results against Real Madrid. In the 16 league matches in that time, Real Madrid have won 9 times, Sevilla 6 times with 1 draw. For the matches that have been in Seville, Sevilla have 4 wins, Real Madrid 3 wins and they played to a draw 1 time.

Home and Away

Last season, Sevilla had an odd home and away record - they got the same number of points in each. They were 11-2-6 at home and 10-5-4 away. They scored two more and conceded one more goal at home. I'm not sure what to make of this other than just that it was variance. That made Sevilla the 2nd best team away from home but only 8th in the table if you only look at home matches. Real Madrid were the third best club last year away from home, behind Sevilla and of course Barcelona. They also both scored and conceded more goals at home - 15 more scored, 6 more conceded. I suppose this all indicates that Sevilla may have less of an edge from playing at home than the average home side.

Recent Form

Both teams are in fantastic form. Real Madrid have only won so far this season. Five matches in they are top of the table with the five wins and a goal difference of +14. Sevilla lost at Valencia the first match of the season but have won their last 4. Their goal difference after the five matches is +9. Also important, both teams have won their two Champions League fixtures in convincing fashion. I'm sure both managers are happy with how their teams have fared so far.


The biggest story of the week is that Cristiano Ronaldo is likely to be out due to a sprained ankle. The good news for Real Madrid is that Lassana Diarra appears to have recovered enough from his pulled muscle to play in the match. Given that they played in the midweek it seems that Guti and former Sevilla player Sergio Ramos will be available. For Sevilla, the lineup should be pretty similar to what was on display at Ibrox Stadium. Fazio and Acosta are still out, but Romaric should be ready.

Scoring and Conceding Rankings

Last season, Real Madrid were the second best team at scoring but only 7th best defensively. Flip that around for Sevilla who conceded 2nd fewest and scored 7th most. Obviously a lot has changed at Real Madrid. See my La Liga Preview for those details and my thoughts on how they'll affect Real Madrid. The short of it is that I expect Real Madrid to be a bit better offensively and a lot better defensively. For Sevilla things aren't much different from last season. They added Negredo, but I expect Luis Fabiano and Frederique Kanoute to start. In this still young season, Real Madrid have been the best scoring team and second best defensively. Sevilla have been the best defensive team and 6th best at scoring.

PLM Predictions

In what may be a repeat of the Manchester Derby, the model predicts a defensive struggle despite all the scoring talent on display. It claims the most likely outcome is 0-0, roughly 45% of the time. The next most likely is 1-0 to Sevilla, with about a 21% chance. It predicts that Sevilla will win 28% of the time, Real Madrid 19% and a draw 52%.

I will abstain from making a personal prediction as I am quite biased. OE SEVILLA OE

No comments:

Post a Comment