UEFA Group 4: Russia - Germany Preview

I may be overreacting to Euro 2008, but Russia - Germany is likely to be the best match in all of qualifying. We're getting a possible final in the qualifying round. While neither would be a favorite, I think both teams are in the second tier of countries that have an outside shot at winning the World Cup.

The Situation

Germany currently sit one point ahead of Russia. Both teams are expected to win their last match. Germany host Finland while Russia travel to Azerbaijan. Assuming they both get the win Wednesday Saturday's match will decide the group. If Russia win then they win the group and qualify automatically. If Germany get a result then they win the group. Both teams are guaranteed a playoff spot even if they lose their last two matches.

History

History is on Germany's side. Russia, as Russia or the USSR, have never beaten Germany or West Germany in a competitive match. I personally think that means nothing as it relates to how this match will turn out, but it is an interesting anecdote given the nonfootball history of the countries. More relevantly, Germany are up a point because they beat the Russians 2-1 in Dortmund a year ago. Here are links to the goals from that match: Podolski Ballack Arshavin. (Sidenote: what's up with the shhh celebration when you score to put your team down a goal?). In that match, Germany dominated the first half, going into the break up 2-0. While Russia were the better side in the second, it wasn't enough to overcome their deficit.

The Ground

A big story related to the match is that it will be played on artificial turf in Moscow at Luzhniki Stadium. That should help the Russians because they will be, at least in theory, more accustomed to the surface plus they play more of a short passing game. I personally think that artificial turf should not be allowed, but maybe it is cheaper so some smaller countries have to go with it. Russia is not such a country and it seems bizarre that they are playing on an artificial surface. I suppose it could have something to do with the snowy and icy conditions in the Russian winter but the forecast for Moscow is for above freezing temperatures.

Injuries

For Russia, there seem to be no injuries that will keep a player out of the match. The biggest injury story is Andei Arshavin, who has been battling a knee injury. Based on his recent performances for Arsenal, including a goal in the 6-2 thrashing of Blackburn last weekend, I'd say the knee is fine.

Germany are less lucky. They will not have the services of starting goalkeeper Robert Enke who is sick. René Adler is expected to replace him. Adler has little experience at this level, though he did play in the previous match against Russia and recorded clean sheets in qualifiers against Wales and Azerbaijan. Given the intensity of the match and the likelihood of plenty of chances for Russia, it'll be interesting to see how the young keeper handles the pressure.

Predictions

I'll mix it up and give my personal thoughts before going with the objective predictions of my current best model. Russia is a very good attacking team that plays a pretty aggressive style to begin with. They have now mathematically locked up second place can count on a German win Wednesday over Finland so they a draw does them no good compared to a loss. This will cause them to push even harder to score. Germany are solid at both ends of the pitch so I expect the match to be extremely entertaining with plenty of chances for both teams. For a scoreline prediction, I'll say that Russia win 2-1.

The PLM predicts a lower-scoring, less-exciting affair. Again the usual caveat applies. The model just uses results, it does not include differences in motivation and incentives compared to previous matches. As I argued above, Russia get little from a draw and a lot from a win so they should be more attack oriented than they have been in previous matches. With that said, the model predicts a 36.5% chance of a win for Russia, 27.7% chance of a German win and a 35.8% probability of a draw. The most likely scorelines are 1-0 and 1-1, each with about a 15% likelihood. This goes in line with the overall prediction, which is Germany to go through top 74% of the time and Russia 26%.

I don't have strong feelings either way about either of these national teams, but Russia is in my opinion one of the most entertaining teams to watch play so I am hoping for a home win.

CONMEBOL - Matchday 17 Preview

Like the other confederations, it's getting down to the wire in the CONMEBOL with the final two matchdays this week. Here's the current table.



Here's a quick breakdown for each team:
Brazil and Paraguay are 100% qualified.

Chile need a win or two draws to get there mathematically. They could also get in Saturday if both Argentina and Venezuela fail to win their matches. In practice, it may be possible for Argentina to catch them if Maradona's boys get two wins and Chile a draw and a loss but it would depend on the scorelines. Right now Chile are up 6 in goal differential so if their loss and the Argentina wins are by multiple goals then they could drop. In this bad scenario, Ecuador would also have to beat Uruguay Saturday to drop the Chilenos down to the playoff spot. The playoff or better is all-but guaranteed. Chile are certain to finish above either Ecuador or Uruguay so they could only be eliminated in sixth if Argentina and Venezuela catch them. Right now Chile are 6 points ahead of Venezuela and up 12 goals in goal differential so Venezuela passing them isn't realistic. In summary, Chile are effectively in the playoff round right now and one more point quite likely will do the job and two more points or any draw or loss by Argentina puts them through automatically.

Ecuador are in a great spot but have a tough schedule ahead. They host Uruguay and then travel south to Chile on Wednesday. Their fate largely rests in their own hands. If they lose both then they will almost certainly be eliminated, not even making the playoff round. With two wins they are obviously in. With a draw and a win they are guaranteed at least a playoff spot but would depend on the Uruguay - Argentina result to make it automatically. Two draws or a draw and a loss and they do a lot of scoreboard watching. With two draws they could be anywhere from automatically in (if Argentina get a draw or loss Saturday and Uruguay - Argentina ends in a draw) to completely out (if Argentina beat Peru Saturday and Uruguay beat Argentina).

Argentina can guarantee at least a playoff spot with a win in Uruguay Wednesday. To qualify automatically they need for Ecuador to get at least one point fewer in their last two matches and to keep Uruguay from passing them. In other words, they can get in with two wins if Ecuador slip up at all and could get in with a draw and a win if Ecuador get two draws, a win and a loss, or two losses.

Despite being in 6th right now, Uruguay can guarantee a spot in South Africa with two wins. Of potential importance, Uruguay should easily win the tiebreaker with any combination of Ecuador, Argentina, Venezuela and Colombia because they are currently +8 in goal differential. Therefore, a draw against Ecuador and a win over Argentina would put the Uruguayos in at least fifth, fourth if Ecuador fail to beat Chile. A win against Ecuador and a draw against Argentina is not nearly as good; Uruguay would be out if Argentina beat Peru and Ecuador beat Chile.

Venezuela and Colombia can possibly get in but will need a lot of help even to make the playoff. Both face a brutal schedule: Venezuela host Paraguay and then travel to Campo Grande, Brazil while Colombia play at home against Chile and then travel to Paraguay.


Group Prediction

The PLM gives the following probabilities:

Top 4:
Brazil - 100%
Paraguay - 100%
Chile - 99.9%
Argentina - 44.3%
Uruguay - 32.2%
Ecuador - 21.8%
Colombia - 1.4%
Venezuela - 0.4%

5th:
Ecuador - 32.2%
Argentina - 31.5%
Uruguay - 27.2%
Colombia - 6.1%
Venezuela - 2.8%
Chile - 0.1%

Top 5 (automatic or playoff):
Brazil - 100%
Paraguay - 100%
Chile - 100%
Argentina - 75.9%
Uruguay - 59.4%
Ecuador - 54.0%
Colombia - 7.6%
Venezuela - 3.2%

Keep in mind that these predictions do not take into account teams having nothing to play for. As a result, I think Ecuador will be more likely than the model predicts because their match in Chile may be a friendly for the home side.

Match Predictions

Colombia - Chile:
Colombia win: 34.7%
Draw: 39.1%
Chile win: 26.3%
Most likely scoreline: 0-0

Ecuador - Uruguay:
Ecuador win: 42.1%
Draw: 30.8%
Uruguay win: 27.1%
Most likely scoreline: 1-1

Argentina - Peru
Argentina win: 81.3%
Draw: 15.4%
Peru win: 3.3%
Most likely scoreline: 2-0

Venezuela - Paraguay
Venezuela win: 31.4%
Draw: 34.1%
Paraguay win: 34.5%
Most likely scoreline: 1-1

Bolivia - Brazil
Bolivia win: 7.7%
Draw: 20.0%
Brazil win: 72.4%
Most likely scoreline: 0-2

World Cup Qualification: UEFA Group 1 - Matchday 9

Current Situation

Denmark are top of the group with 18 points. Sweden trail with 15 followed by Portugal and Hungary with 13 each. Albania and Malta have been eliminated. In the first tiebreaker, goal differential, Denmark are +11, Sweden +6, Portugal +4 and Hungary +4.

Saturday Denmark host Sweden while Hungary travel to Portugal. Wednesday's matches are very important as well - Denmark play at home against Hungary while Sweden and Portugal host Albania and Malta respectively. We can expect Sweden and Portugal to win, probably big, Wednesday. It would not even be out of the question for Sweden to win by 5+ goals given the potential importance. Unlike some of my previous scenarios where I assumed high scorelines didn't happen, I don't think that can be done.

Here are the scenarios. They are pretty messy at this point, obviously it will become much more clear Saturday night.

Denmark will automatically qualify if one of these happens:
- they win against Sweden
- they draw against Sweden and get at least a draw against Hungary

They could also get in other ways with some help. If they draw against Sweden and lose to Hungary then they could finish top if their goal differential remains higher than Sweden and, if necessary, the winner of Portugal - Hungary. Same goes for a loss to Sweden and a win over Hungary - they would then only need to beat Sweden in the tiebreakers.

The Danes could actually be eliminated from the competition. That can happen only if Portugal - Hungary does not end in a draw. If that happens and Denmark lose both matches then they will be eliminated assuming Sweden and Portugal beat their weak opponents. It can also happen if Denmark get a draw and a loss, in either order, and lose the tiebreakers to Sweden and/or Portugal and/or Hungary.

Sweden can only make it automatically with help or by winning tiebreakers with Denmark. If they win Saturday then they can get in with a better result than Denmark get Wednesday or by winning the tiebreakers. Right now they are down 5 goals on goal differential, but they go to down 3 with a 1 goal win and down just 1 with a two-goal win Saturday. That plus the much weaker opponent Wednesday means it is far from impossible to catch Denmark in goal differential. A win Saturday plus a 5-goal win over Albania would likely be good enough for automatic qualification. The Swedes could also get in with a draw against Denmark and a Denmark loss Wednesday. Again, they would need to beat Albania by a large margin.

If Portugal-Hungary does not end in a draw then Sweden may need two wins or 4 points in their two matches plus winning the tiebreaker in order to make the playoff. Should Sweden get a draw and Portugal win Saturday we will have what I think is an unfortunate situation Wednesday where Sweden and Portugal will be trying to pile on as many goals and win by as much as possible trying to get the edge in the goal-differential and goals-scored tiebreakers. That possibility is certainly the downside of basing the first set of tiebreakers on results from the group as a whole instead of head-to-head results, though in this case it wouldn't matter because both matches between Portugal and Sweden were 0-0 draws.

Portugal need to win and get some help. They can still win the group with two wins but it's not likely. The most likely way for that to happen would be for Denmark - Sweden to end in a draw, for Hungary to win in Denmark next Wednesday and to win the tiebreaker over both Sweden and Denmark. Portugal's fate depends a lot on the Denmark - Sweden outcome. If Denmark win then Portugal would make the playoff round with two wins. If it's a draw then Portugal could get in with two wins, but would likely have to win the tiebreak with Sweden. In this scenario they would be going into Wednesday at least even on goal differential with more goals scored. If Sweden win then things are more complicated. Even with two wins they would need either for either Sweden or Denmark to get a draw or loss in their last match. In both cases the opponent would have nothing to play for. If you are Portuguese you should definitely be cheering for Denmark.

Hungary's situation is very similar to that of Portugal. It is slightly better if you just ask what happens if certain results happen - the Hungarians are at least in the playoff round with two wins if Sweden beat Denmark Saturday.


Group PLM Predictions

The PLM gives Denmark an 83.7% chance of winning the group, Sweden 11.8%, Portugal 3.4% and Hungary 1.1%. The most likely second-place team is Sweden according to the model. The Swedes have a 45.6% chance of finishing second and making the playoff, Portugal 33.1%, Denmark 11.5%, and Hungary 6.1%. Adding them up, Denmark have a 95.2% shot at either winning the group or reaching the playoff, Sweden 57.4%, Portugal 36.5% and Hungary 7.2%. This group has just under a 4% chance of having the worst second-place team.


Saturday's Matches

Denmark - Sweden (20:00 local, 2:00 PM Eastern United States)


First off, if you didn't follow Euro 2008 qualifying, you definitely want to check out what happened the last time these teams met in Copenhagen. The hotly contested match was 3-3 in the 88th minute when the referee awarded a Sweden penalty and sent off Christian Poulsen after talking to the linesman, who saw Poulsen strike a Sweden player in the midsection. A fan then ran onto the pitch in an apparent attempt to attack the referee, though he was stopped by a couple nearby Danish defenders. The four referees got together and decided to abandon the match. Here is a youtube link, here is the wikipedia page about the incident. I'm sure both of these sides would love to severely damage the other's qualification chances.

Form and Injuries

Form probably doesn't mean much given that these teams last played nearly a month ago. Sweden have won 3 matches in a row since losing 0-1 to Denmark in June. Denmark have two draws in their two matches. Their last match was particularly bad as it was a 1-1 draw at Albania. They could have all-but sealed a trip to South Africa with a win so the draw is certainly bad news.

For injuries, there is little to report. Daniel Agger has not played a match since playing in Sweden for Denmark due to a back injury. He was expected to play, but sat out training yesterday. It seems unlikely that he'll go 90 minutes if he does play.

PLM Predictions

The PLM predicts a match that is likely to be low-scoring. It gives Denmark a 48% chance to win, Sweden a 17% chance with a draw happening 35% of the time. The most likely scoreline according to the model is a 1-0 win for Denmark which will happen with 20% probability. I'm inclined to think that Denmark will struggle to keep Sweden from scoring, so I'll make a 1-1 draw my personal prediction.


Portugal - Hungary (19:45 local, 3:45 PM Eastern US)

The obvious place to start is with injuries, which unfortunately Portugal have a lot of. Cristiano Ronaldo missed the epic Sevilla win over Real Madrid because of an ankle injury suffered in the Champions League match against Olympique Marseille in the midweek. News reports indicate that he will be ready to play, but we shall see. By the way, he may be cursed and never play again. There are similar injured but should play reports for Bosingwa and Tiago. Despite his name, Duda is less doubtful and much more likely to both play and be closer to 100%.

I have been unable to find any sort of injury report for Hungary.

Predictions

The PLM predicts that the Portuguese should win. They are given a 70% chance, Hungary a 7% chance and the remaining 23% being the likelihood of a draw. The most likely outcome is 2-0 to Portugal. I personally think the model overrates the probability of a draw. The reason for that is that a draw serves neither team. If the score is even near the end I think we can expect to see a lot of attacking football from both sides. It is much more likely than usual for there to be a goal that breaks the deadlock. The injury situation for Portugal is certainly not good, even if they get all four players mentioned above to play. The model does not take that into account, and I think in particular overrates them offensively for that reason. I think these factors somewhat cancel out on the Portugal side so they are probably around that 70%. I'd guess Hungary are more like 20% to win, with about a 10% chance of a draw which would practically eliminate both teams. I'll make 1-0 Portugal my just-for-fun prediction.

CONCACAF Qualifying - Matchday 9 Preview

It is that time again. Much should be decided this Saturday in the CONCACAF.

Here is the table:



In chronological order, here are the matches Saturday:
Mexico - El Salvador (6 PM Eastern)
Costa Rica - Trinidad and Tobago (10 PM Eastern)
Honduras - United States (10 PM Eastern)

The United States, Mexico and Honduras could clinch a spot in South Africa Saturday. For the US and Mexico it's a win and they are automatically in. For Honduras, a win plus a loss for Costa Rica would do. In practice they would also be in with a win and a draw for Costa Rica, though not mathematically. They are 10 goals ahead in goal differential, so finishing even on points with Costa Rica will put them through. Costa Rica can't clinch a spot Saturday but a win against Trinidad and Tobago or Mexico getting any result against El Salvador would guarantee the Ticos at least a playoff spot.

Since the last update, I've changed to an improved model, which I call the PLM. Its predictions have been shown to be more accurate than the Poisson model. Here are the qualification percentages based on the PLM.




Mexico's chances of winning in each of their matches dropped a bit according to the PLM compared to the Poisson model, so they fell from the team most likely to qualify to third best. None the less, they are overwhelming favorites. Keep in mind that the model uses only results and not injuries, see below for more on that, and it does not take into account that Trinidad and Tobago, El Salvador and possibly the United States will have nothing to play for the last matchday.

Match Previews


Mexico - El Salvador

Home Field Advantage

You can always expect it to be tough playing away in the hex. That is especially true in Azteca. In my view, Mexico playing at home has one of the biggest home-field advantages in all of sports. That seems true this campaign as they've struggled away from home but remained as dominant as usual at home: Mexico are 8-0-0 at home with 21 goals for and only 4 against. In the hex they are 5-0-0 with 7 goals for and 2 against. El Salvador have struggled on the road with just 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses in all of qualifying. Their wins are over the footballing powerhouses Anguilla and Suriname. Their draw is against Haiti. In the hex the El Salvadorians have lost all 5 matches away from home.

Form and Injuries:
It's a bit odd to talk about form for internationals, but it seems relevant because these teams have gone in completely different directions recently. On June 6th, El Salvador beat Mexico 2-1. Since then Mexico have done nothing but win. They defeated Trinidad and Tobago as well as the United States 2-1, they won 0-3 against Costa Rica and their last match was a 1-0 win over Honduras. El Salvador have struggled, but did pick up a win last month. After beating Mexico they lost 1-0 to both Honduras and Trinidad and Tobago. They then lost 2-1 to the US in Utah. Their last match they turned it around with a 1-0 win at home against Costa Rica.

I don't believe either team has any injury problems.

PLM Prediction

The PLM has Mexico winning 69.6% of the time, El Salvador 6.7% and a draw the other 23.6%. Due to the home-field discussion above and that El Salvador are practically eliminated, I think Mexico have a better chance than that - as high as 90% to win I'd say if I had to guess. The PLM says that 1-0 and 2-0 are the most likely scorelines. I'll say Mexico win comfortably, 3-0.

Costa Rica - Trinidad and Tobago

Home Field

Before the Mexico match last month, I could have written something pretty similar to what I did for Mexico above. After the 0-3 loss, Costa Rica now have a home record of 7-0-1 in all qualifying matches with 19 goals for and 4 against. In the final round their record is 3-0-1 with 6 goals for and 4 against. For the whole campaign T&T have a 2-2-4 record with 9 goals for and 15 against. In the hex they are 0-1-3 with 4 goals for and 11 against.

Form

Trinidad and Tobago's results have been pretty consistently bad, Costa Rica appear to be in free fall. Since winning at T&T in June, Costa Rica have lost three in a row. What's worse, twice they were crushed and the other loss was against a relatively weak El Salvador side. They went down 4-0 at Honduras and got beat 0-3 versus Mexico before losing 1-0 in El Salvador.

To make matters worse for the Ticos, they look to be without midfielder Celso Borges due to injury and defender Gilberto Martinez due to suspension for skipping out on practice to go the beach! My source for that is the oft-cited Soccer By Ives.

PLM Predictions

The model predicts a winning probability of 75.8% for Costa Rica, 5.9% for Trinidad and Tobago with an 18.3% chance of a draw. To be honest, I think it's tough to say how far it is off based on the factors above. Costa Rica have been struggling and have injuries, but Trinidad and Tobago have nothing to play for. If I had to guess I'd say those things wash out and the predictions are pretty close. According to the PLM, the most likely outcome is 2-0 for Costa Rica. That seems like a good prediction to me.

Honduras - United States of America

Home Field

I'm repeating myself a fair bit here, but the advantage home sides have in CONCACAF is a point difficult to overemphasize. In all qualifying matches, Honduras have a perfect 8-0-0 record with 22 goals for and 3 against. In the four hex matches they have 12 goals for and just two against. The US have a 4-1-3 record in all qualifying matches, but 3 of those wins are against Barbados, Cuba and Guatemala in earlier rounds. In the final round they have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses with 5 goals for and 7 against. Despite that record not looking stellar, it actually is good compared to the other teams. Getting a point per match is a big reason that the US find themselves top of the table and on the verge of clinching a trip to South Africa.

Form

There's not much to write about here. Since the two teams played in June, Honduras have won 3 out of 4 matches with the only blemish a 1-0 loss in Mexico City. The US have done the same, winning their other three matches and losing by a goal in Mexico.

Injuries

The big injury story is that the US will be without Clint Dempsey who has a shoulder sprain. It is up in the air who will replace him. For updates on that situation, I again recommend Ives's blog.

I'm aware of no injuries to Honduras.

(Edit: I missed two suspensions for Honduras - midfielders Amado Guevara and Danilo Turcios. Both are starters. Guevara should be familiar to American fans as he is a regular for Toronto FC in the MLS and played the whole game in the Honduras 2-1 loss in Chicago. Turcios came on as a second-half sub in that match. I should also have mentioned that star forward David Suazo will be returning from injury and though he will almost certainly play, may not be 100%. Thanks to 2+2er mmbt0ne for the corrections.)

PLM Predictions

The model predicts a 53.8% chance of victory for Honduras, 14.8% for the United States and 31.5% chance of a draw. The most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Honduras. I personally think the loss of Dempsey is a pretty big blow for the US. Because the model does not take it into account, I think the Hondurans' chances should probably be higher and the Americans' lower. I'll predict a hard-fought 2-1 win for Honduras.

Overall Prediction and a Look Ahead

My picks, and those of the objective PLM, point to Mexico clinching Saturday while the US, Honduras and Costa Rica are forced to battle for the last two automatic spots next Wednesday. Saturday night check back here for an update and a preview of Wednesday's matches. In the meantime, I'll be posting similar previews for the other confederations.

English Premier League Review - Matchday 7.5

My in-laws made a late decision to visit this weekend and for the next couple days, plus I am getting ready for the World Cup Qualification articles, so I'll be quick with this.

Results:
Arsenal 6 - 2 Blackburn
Bolton 2 - 2 Tottenham
Burnley 2 - 1 Birmingham
Chelsea 2 - 0 Liverpool
Everton 1 - 1 Stoke
Hull 2 - 1 Wigan
Man Utd 2 - 2 Sunderland
West Ham 2 - 2 Fulham
Wolverhampton 0 - 1 Portsmouth


I watched a lot of Manchester United - Sunderland, which to be honest I wasn't expecting. I hadn't seen Sunderland play this season, but based on their results and how well Man U had played I thought it would be the kind of match where non-Manchester United fans such as myself would quickly change the channel. I was pleasantly surprised with the way the match went as well as with Sunderland's play. They were definitely the better team out there and deserved the three points. United fans should, and based on what I've read do, feel fortunate with the result even though it is two points less than they expected Friday night.

The other match I watched in was Chelsea - Liverpool. I only saw the second half, but in my view Chelsea simply outclassed the scousers. Torres and Gerrard both looked lost out there and it seemed liked Chelsea controlled play. Based on what I've read of the match it seems like Liverpool were better in the first half, so I guess I caught the bad half for them. They certainly can't play like they did in the second and still be in the hunt for the title.

The only other match that I feel warrants a comment is Wolverhampton losing at home to Portsmouth. While that is Portsmouth's first points of the season, it puts them just four back of the Wanderers. That should make the relegation battle more interesting.

Rankings



Arsenal? Really?

One of my fears with putting up my rankings this early is that I would turn away readers because things could look ludicrous. While I am exaggerating a bit, this is one of those cases. I think Arsenal are a good team and fully expect them to finish in one of the 4 Champions League spots with a great shot at the top 3, which sends a team automatically to the group stage. Them winning the league I don't expect, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise. None the less, I think them in the top spot demonstrates the downside of these sorts of rankings at this stage of the season.

The rankings say the following: if we played a full season (starting over) at the level the results thus far have indicated, then what would be the expected goal differential for each team? Their results thus far have been unsustainably good from a goal-differential perspective. They've played 3 home matches, admittedly against mediocre or worse opponents, and won 4-0, 4-1 and 6-2. Away from home they have a 1-6 win over Everton, a 2-1 loss at Old Trafford, a 4-2 loss at Man City and a 0-1 win at Fulham. So they've had spectacular home results, one similarly ridiculous away win, and three away matches that don't look great or bad. At some point it's inevitable that they will have some "bad" matches and only beat weak opponents by a goal. At that point they will take a serious dive in the eyes of the model and their ranking will be closer to where they probably are. Then again, I suppose it's possible that they really are this good at scoring. I think this is extremely unlikely though. At some point if they keep putting up 4+ goals just about every match we'll have to give them credit for being a ridiculously good team at scoring, but that day is still several matches off.

Weekend Preview: Sevilla - Real Madrid

This week there are three big matches, all on Sunday. I'll start with my favorite, Sevilla - Real Madrid. Later today or possibly tomorrow I'll cover the Old Firm and Chelsea - Liverpool. Sevilla - Real Madrid kicks off at 21:00 local time, which is 3:00 PM on the East coast of the US. In the United States you can see the match on GolTV.

Recent History

Sevilla spent the 2000-2001 season in the Segunda, but have since been in the Primera. Since they have actually gotten pretty good results against Real Madrid. In the 16 league matches in that time, Real Madrid have won 9 times, Sevilla 6 times with 1 draw. For the matches that have been in Seville, Sevilla have 4 wins, Real Madrid 3 wins and they played to a draw 1 time.

Home and Away

Last season, Sevilla had an odd home and away record - they got the same number of points in each. They were 11-2-6 at home and 10-5-4 away. They scored two more and conceded one more goal at home. I'm not sure what to make of this other than just that it was variance. That made Sevilla the 2nd best team away from home but only 8th in the table if you only look at home matches. Real Madrid were the third best club last year away from home, behind Sevilla and of course Barcelona. They also both scored and conceded more goals at home - 15 more scored, 6 more conceded. I suppose this all indicates that Sevilla may have less of an edge from playing at home than the average home side.

Recent Form

Both teams are in fantastic form. Real Madrid have only won so far this season. Five matches in they are top of the table with the five wins and a goal difference of +14. Sevilla lost at Valencia the first match of the season but have won their last 4. Their goal difference after the five matches is +9. Also important, both teams have won their two Champions League fixtures in convincing fashion. I'm sure both managers are happy with how their teams have fared so far.

Injuries

The biggest story of the week is that Cristiano Ronaldo is likely to be out due to a sprained ankle. The good news for Real Madrid is that Lassana Diarra appears to have recovered enough from his pulled muscle to play in the match. Given that they played in the midweek it seems that Guti and former Sevilla player Sergio Ramos will be available. For Sevilla, the lineup should be pretty similar to what was on display at Ibrox Stadium. Fazio and Acosta are still out, but Romaric should be ready.

Scoring and Conceding Rankings

Last season, Real Madrid were the second best team at scoring but only 7th best defensively. Flip that around for Sevilla who conceded 2nd fewest and scored 7th most. Obviously a lot has changed at Real Madrid. See my La Liga Preview for those details and my thoughts on how they'll affect Real Madrid. The short of it is that I expect Real Madrid to be a bit better offensively and a lot better defensively. For Sevilla things aren't much different from last season. They added Negredo, but I expect Luis Fabiano and Frederique Kanoute to start. In this still young season, Real Madrid have been the best scoring team and second best defensively. Sevilla have been the best defensive team and 6th best at scoring.

PLM Predictions

In what may be a repeat of the Manchester Derby, the model predicts a defensive struggle despite all the scoring talent on display. It claims the most likely outcome is 0-0, roughly 45% of the time. The next most likely is 1-0 to Sevilla, with about a 21% chance. It predicts that Sevilla will win 28% of the time, Real Madrid 19% and a draw 52%.

I will abstain from making a personal prediction as I am quite biased. OE SEVILLA OE

MLS - Analysis and Playoff Predictions (Oct 1)

While the European leagues are just getting going, the MLS is heading into the tense weeks at the end of the season.

The Format

The MLS uses a kind of hybrid between typical league and cup formats to decide its champion. There is a regular season in which every team plays every other twice plus two additional matches, one at home and one away. That is where we are now, teams have played 25-27 matches so there are 3 to 5 left. When the regular season is done, the top 8 teams make the playoffs, with the caveat that at least two teams from each conference must be the in the playoffs. Like other sports in the US, the playoffs are split by conference as much as possible. I say as much as possible because a team, or even two though that's very unlikely, from, for example, the West could play in the Eastern Conference playoff.

The format in the playoffs is similar to that of cup competitions, like the knockout rounds of the UEFA Champions League. They play two matches, one in each team's stadium. After the two matches the scores are added. If teams are tied in aggregate goals, then they go to extra time and penalties if necessary. This is different than UEFA competitions where the away-goals rule is used.

For now, the thing you need to know is that the top 8 make the playoffs assuming two from each conference are in that top 8.

Ranking

Here are the rankings:



The right-most column, which is what they're ranked by, is what the average goal differential would be for each team if the teams played a million balanced seasons at the level indicated by the results thus far. I say balanced seasons because I'm assuming each team would only play each other team twice, not play the additional two matches. O rank is their scoring rank, D rank is their defensive ranking.

Compared to the rankings for other leagues, the most striking thing about this is how much more parity there is in the MLS compared to other leagues. The obvious reason for this is the salary cap, which keeps some teams from spending drastically more than others. Probably for this reason, the best team in the MLS is, at least according to my model, not the best offensively or defensively. For comparison, Manchester United rates best at both, and both Inter and Real Madrid rate as the best teams in their leagues at scoring and second best defensively.

Let's look at the second column. That's the difference between my rankings and the team's current spot in the standings. For example, I rate Colorado 3rd but the Rapids are 5th in the table right now. Some of these difference are simply because teams have played a different number of games so far. Another difference is the schedule - teams don't play a balanced schedule. I think that part is minimal. The biggest difference in my view is that some teams have, if you'll excuse the gambling term, "run good" in terms of how many points they've picked up given their goal differential. My rankings are based on goal differential, obviously the table uses points. As I argued in a previous article, how many points a team gets for a given goal differential is apparently all luck. In my view, New England and Los Angeles are not as good as their records suggest while Real Salt Lake and Dallas are significantly better than their records.

The Playoff Race

To come up with playoff predictions, I simulated the league playing out 10,000 times using the Poisson-Logit Model, which I believe to be very accurate at predicting match outcomes this far into the season.

For a more in-depth description of the playoff race, see Ives's soccernet article which goes over the schedules and recent results for each team still in the playoff race. I don't like his odds, they underrate every contender, probably because when you convert his odds to percentages they add up to just over 5 spots instead of 8. Otherwise the article is solid.

Here is the breakdown:

Already in:
Columbus Crew

Almost certain:
Houston Dynamo - 99.99% (they missed the playoffs in exactly 1 out of the 10,000 simulations)
Chicago Fire - 99.88%
Los Angeles Galaxy - 98.95%
Chivas USA - 94.5%

Probably in, but with some work to do:
Colorado Rapids - 80.9%
Seattle Sounders - 75.6%
New England Revolution - 63.6%

Uphill climb:
Real Salt Lake - 39.0%
Toronto FC - 25.4%

Not looking good:
DC United - 13.9%
FC Dallas - 7.3%
Kansas City Wizards - 0.9%
San Jose Earthquakes - 0.02% (2 out of 10,000 simulations)

Out:
New York Red Bulls