CONCACAF Predictions

With the US versus El Salvador having just kicked off here are the predictions, just a bit late.

USA - El Salvador
USA win probability: 71%
Draw probability: 20%
El Salvador win probability: 9%

Most likely outcome:
1-0 to the US just beats out 2-0. Each has about a 17% chance of happening.

Costa Rica - Mexico
Costa Rica win: 63%
Draw: 20%
Mexico win: 17%
In the model including all Gold Cup results this swings to 47%, 28% and 25%

Most likely outcome:
2-0 Costa Rica at around 10%. Similarly likely are 2-0, 2-1 and 1-1.


Honduras - Trinidad and Tobago
Honduras win: 79%
Draw: 15%
T&T win: 6%

Most likely outcome:
2-0 at around 15%.