World Cup Qualifying - CONCACAF

Things are starting to shape up and return to normal in the hex. The top two are now the United States and Mexico. The US won a pretty standard CONCACAF road game. It wasn't pretty, they didn't dominate and even got outplayed for stretches but managed to grind out a very important win. It's something vital at this stage of qualifying and something you see a lot of teams fail to do, Costa Rica yesterday being a good example.

Results:
Trinidad and Tobago 0 - 1 United States
Mexico 1 - 0 Honduras
El Salvador 1 - 0 Costa Rica

Here's the table:


Assuming no crazy 10-goal wins happen, here are the scenarios for each team to qualify automatically with the top-3 finish.

United States:
The Yanks go marching in if they:
- win against Honduras or
- get a draw or win against Costa Rica

They would also be in if one of these happens:
- Costa Rica lose or just get a draw at home against Trinidad and Tobago
- they draw with Honduras, Honduras does not win at El Salvador
- Mexico get only one point combined against El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago

Mexico
Mexico qualify automatically if they:
- win either of their next two matches

If they manage two draws then they would need for one of these to happen:
- Costa Rica draw or lose in either of their last two matches
- Honduras lose either of their last two
- the US lose both of their last two

With just a single point from their last two matches they need one of these:
- Costa Rica draw or lose in either of their last two
- Honduras fail to win either of their last two

If Mexico lose both then they can still make it if:
- Costa Rica lose a match or fail to win either match
- Honduras get a draw and a loss or two losses

Honduras
Honduras are in if they win both matches.

If they get a win and a draw they need one of these to happen:
- Costa Rica get a draw or loss in one of their last two matches
- Mexico fail to win either of their last two matches
- the win is against the US and the US also lose to Costa Rica

If they get a draw and a loss they need one of these to happen:
- Costa Rica get a draw or loss in one of their last two matches
- Mexico get a draw and a loss or two losses in their last two matches
- the win is against the United States and the US also lose to Costa Rica

Costa Rica
If Costa Rica get two wins then they are in.

If they get a win and a draw then they also need one of these to happen:
- Honduras win neither of their last two matches
- Mexico lose both of their last two

If they get a win and a loss then they need for Honduras to get either a draw and a loss or two losses in their last two matches.

If they get two draws then they need for Honduras to lose both of their last two matches.

Poisson Predictions

Here are the updated percentages for automatic qualification according to the Poisson model:
Mexico - 94.1%
United States - 91.6%
Honduras - 89.8%
Costa Rica - 24.3%

To be honest I'm surprised Costa Rica is that high since the model does not take into account that the US might have nothing to play for.

Here are the overall qualification percentages assuming the playoff would be a coin flip:
Mexico - 96.8%
United States - 95.8%
Honduras - 94.8%
Costa Rica - 60.9%

I think that severely overrates Costa Ricas chances. The Ticos are in a pretty serious tailspin at the moment and even though Argentina doesn't look good and currently sit fifth in CONMEBOL I think Costa Rica is an underdog in the playoff round. I'd say they are more like 45% to make it.