Saturday, September 5, 2009

A Mid-Day Qualification Update

Now that all European matches have been played as well as a couple in South America, here are updated odds for UEFA and CONMEBOL. I'll have a more detailed writeup for each later.


Colombia 2 - 0 Ecuador
Peru 1 - 0 Uruguay

Both results are great for Argentina and put the two losers in a tough spot. Brazil, Chile and Paraguay are still better than 99% to get in automatically. Because of those results, Argentina went from 53% to make the top 4 to 77%. Their match later today is still pretty big but it's been a good day so far. Uruguay's chances are now down to just 26% overall, as usual assuming the playoff would be 50/50 if they get there. Ecuador losing as well somewhat negated the pain of their loss. Ecuador nearly cut their chances in half - they are down to 11% overall to qualify.


Group 1
Denmark 1 - 1 Portugal
Hungary 1 - 2 Sweden

Sweden now have a 49% chance at second place and the playoff. Portugal actually slightly improved their chances and now have a 39% probability of finishing in second with enough points. Hungary is significantly worse off - they now have just a 4% shot at the playoff.

Group 2
Moldova 0 - 0 Luxembourg
Israel 0 - 1 Latvia
Switzerland 2 - 0 Greece

Switzerland are now favorites to go through top with a 65% chance. They also have a 29% chance of finishing in second and making the playoff. Greece have fallen to 29% to go through automatically and 53% to make the playoff. Latvia are still in it but have just a 7% shot at winning the group and 16% of making the playoff round.

Group 3
Poland 1 - 1 Northern Ireland
Slovakia 2 - 2 Czech Republic

The results were good for Slovakia. They are now at 64% to finish in first and 15% to make the playoff round in second. Northern Ireland are in a similar spot to where they were yesterday - 12% to win the group and 26% to finish second and make the playoff. Slovenia improved their chances and are now at 12% to win the group and 16% for second. Poland and the Czech Republic are now in worse shape. Poland have a 7% chance to win the group and 15% of getting into the playoff round and the Czech Republic 5% and 19%.

Group 4
Azerbaijan 1 - 2 Finland
Russia 3 - 0 Liechtenstein

Nothing changed. Russia won as expected so it still comes down to them and Germany for first and second.

Group 5
Armenia 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina
Turkey 4 - 2 Estonia
Spain 5 - 0 Belgium

Bosnia-Herzegovina's chances went up a bit and Turkey's down. B-H are now at 71% to make the playoff round and Turkey 28%.

Group 6
Ukraine 5 - 0 Andorra
Croatia 1 - 0 Belarus

Croatia's chances went down slightly and Ukraine's up. The 5 goals may be huge for Ukraine. Croatia are now at 69% and Ukraine 30% to make the playoff round.

Group 7
Austria 3 - 1 Faroe Islands
France 1 - 1 Romania

France's chances for first took a bit of a hit, but most of that went on to their playoff equity. They are now at 30% to win the group and 67% for good-enough second. Serbia are now up to 70% to win the group and 30% to qualify for the playoff round.

Group 8
Bulgaria 4 - 1 Montenegro
Georgia 0 - 2 Italy
Cyprus 1 - 2 Republic of Ireland

Nothing changed here. Italy and Ireland both got the wins they were supposed to.

Group 9
Scotland 2 - 0 Macedonia
Iceland 1 - 1 Norway

Norway's chances took a major blow. They were the most likely team to get second but are now down to just having a 5% chance at making the playoff to go with the 36% probability of finishing second but being eliminated anyway. Scotland's chances have gone up to 15% for second and in the playoff. Macedonia are now pretty much eliminated.

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